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Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

What will be the closing value of the S&P 500 Index on 30 June 2022?

117 Forecasters • 1354 Forecasts
Started Jun 17, 2021 08:00PM UTC
Closed Jun 30, 2022 07:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Less than 3,800
45%
Between 3,800 and 4,100, inclusive
55%
More than 4,100 but less than 4,400
0%
Between 4,400 and 4,700, inclusive
0%
More than 4,700 but less than 5,000
0%
5,000 or more
0%

(Opinion) Do you approve or disapprove of the Iranian nuclear deal?

85%

Chance
560 Forecasters • 701 Forecasts
Started Feb 09, 2016 06:00PM UTC
Closed Oct 18, 2016 06:59AM UTC
&nbspThe Mack Institute asks

Will at least 400 employers participate as partners in the US Department of Energy’s Workplace Charging Challenge in 2016?

8%

Chance
159 Forecasters • 662 Forecasts
Started Apr 22, 2016 02:39AM UTC
Closed Dec 16, 2016 02:53PM UTC
The Economist and Private Superforecasting Workshop ask:

What will be the US domestic auto inventory as of May 2022?

151 Forecasters • 593 Forecasts
Started Oct 22, 2021 05:00PM UTC
Closed Jun 01, 2022 07:01AM UTC
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Fewer than 100.0 (thousands)
95%
Between 100.0 (thousands) and 300.0 (thousands), inclusive
5%
More than 300.0 (thousands) but fewer than 500.0 (thousands)
0%
Between 500.0 (thousands) and 700.0 (thousands), inclusive
0%
More than 700.0 (thousands)
0%
The Mack Institute asks

What total percentage of global vehicle sales in 2022 will be battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs)?

175 Forecasters • 580 Forecasts
Started Apr 02, 2020 05:00PM UTC
Closed Jul 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC
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Less than 2.5%
0%
Between 2.5% and 4.5%, inclusive
0%
More than 4.5% but less than 6.5%
20%
Between 6.5% and 8.5%, inclusive
40%
More than 8.5%
25%

What will be the closing value of the Hang Seng Index on 30 June 2022?

43 Forecasters • 569 Forecasts
Started Nov 12, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closed Jun 30, 2022 07:01AM UTC
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Less than 20,000
0%
Between 20,000 and 23,000, inclusive
100%
More than 23,000 but less than 26,000
0%
Between 26,000 and 29,000, inclusive
0%
More than 29,000 but less than 32,000
0%
32,000 or more
0%
The Mack Institute asks:

How many Cybertrucks will Tesla deliver to customers in 2022?

178 Forecasters • 546 Forecasts
Started Aug 21, 2020 05:00PM UTC
Closed Jul 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC
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Fewer than 25,000
79%
Between 25,000 and 100,000, inclusive
20%
More than 100,000 but fewer than 175,000
0%
Between 175,000 and 250,000, inclusive
0%
More than 250,000
0%
The Mack Institute asks:

Before 1 January 2023, how many major automakers will sell a self-driving passenger vehicle manufactured without a steering wheel?

255 Forecasters • 487 Forecasts
Started May 22, 2020 05:00PM UTC
Closed Jul 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC
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0
99%
1
1%
2
0%
3 or more
0%
The Mack Institute asks:

Before 1 January 2023, will Amazon or a subsidiary use a Zoox autonomous vehicle to deliver a package and/or for a public ride-hailing service?

148 Forecasters • 484 Forecasts
Started Aug 14, 2020 05:00PM UTC
Closed Jul 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC
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Yes, only to deliver a package but not for a public ride-hailing service
24%
Yes, only a for public ride-hailing service but not to deliver a package
0%
Yes, both to deliver a package and for a public ride-hailing service
11%
No
46%
HFC asks

Will the PITF Worldwide Atrocities Dataset record an event perpetrated by a state actor in Iraq (IRQ) that starts between 1 October 2017 and 31 October 2017?

10%

Chance
102 Forecasters • 438 Forecasts
Started Sep 20, 2017 04:00PM UTC
Closed Nov 01, 2017 03:59AM UTC
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