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What will be the difference in the Earth's decadal average global surface temperature in 2091 to 2100 as compared to 1881 to 1890?
12 Forecasters • 12 Forecasts
Started
Aug 12, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closing
Oct 01, 2022 07:01AM UTC
Show All Possible Answers
Less than 1.00°C
33%
Between 1.00°C and 2.00°C, inclusive
27%
More than 2.00°C but less than 3.00°C
40%
Between 3.00°C and 4.00°C, inclusive
0%
More than 4.00°C but less than 5.00°C
0%
Between 5.00°C and 6.00°C, inclusive
0%
More than 6.00°C but less than 7.00°C
0%
7.00°C or more
0%
tabhuth
asks:
Between 12 August 2022 and 18 February 2023, will former President Donald Trump be criminally charged with or indicted for a federal and/or state crime in the US?
33 Forecasters • 52 Forecasts
Started
Aug 12, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closing
Feb 18, 2023 08:01AM UTC
Show All Possible Answers
Yes, a federal crime only
21%
Yes, a state crime only
6%
Yes, both a federal crime and a state crime
24%
No
49%
Before 1 April 2023, will a NATO member state accuse Russia of using a chemical or biological weapon in Ukraine?
15%
Chance
18 Forecasters • 25 Forecasts
Started
Aug 12, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closing
Apr 01, 2023 07:01AM UTC
DippySkippy
asks:
Before 8 November 2022, will American basketball player Brittney Griner leave Russia?
18%
Chance
23 Forecasters • 32 Forecasts
Started
Aug 12, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closing
Nov 08, 2022 08:01AM UTC
When will the Council of the European Union (Council) declare a "Union alert" triggering a mandatory, EU-wide reduction in natural gas consumption?
22 Forecasters • 25 Forecasts
Started
Aug 12, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closing
Apr 01, 2023 07:01AM UTC
Show All Possible Answers
Before 1 October 2022
11%
Between 1 October 2022 and 31 December 2022
43%
Between 1 January 2023 and 31 March 2023
24%
Not before 1 April 2023
22%
Private
Superforecasting Workshop
asks:
Will the annual percent change in the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index be at or below 3.0% by December 2022?
10%
Chance
27 Forecasters • 39 Forecasts
Started
Aug 05, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closing
Jan 01, 2023 08:01AM UTC
Private
Superforecasting Workshop
asks:
Will an electrical blackout lasting at least one hour and affecting 60 million or more people in the US and/or Canada occur before 1 April 2023?
4%
Chance
44 Forecasters • 58 Forecasts
Started
Aug 05, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closing
Apr 01, 2023 07:01AM UTC
Private
Superforecasting Workshop
asks:
What will be the total passenger throughput at airports in China in December 2022?
15 Forecasters • 22 Forecasts
Started
Aug 05, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closing
Jan 01, 2023 08:01AM UTC
Show All Possible Answers
Fewer than 20 million
0%
Between 20 million and 40 million, inclusive
37%
More than 40 million but fewer than 60 million
36%
Between 60 million and 80 million, inclusive
25%
More than 80 million but fewer than 100 million
2%
100 million or more
0%
Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel of Taiwan and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before 1 January 2023?
6%
Chance
69 Forecasters • 98 Forecasts
Started
Aug 05, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closing
Jan 01, 2023 08:01AM UTC
Will Russia officially recognize Transnistria (Pridnestrovskaia Moldavskaia Republic) in Moldova as an independent state before 1 April 2023?
34%
Chance
50 Forecasters • 66 Forecasts
Started
Aug 05, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closing
Apr 01, 2023 07:01AM UTC
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