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Maarten and Adam Grant ask:

Which will happen next regarding the price of a bitcoin?

520 Forecasters • 1558 Forecasts
Started Feb 16, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closing Jun 30, 2021 07:01AM UTC
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Bitcoin will have a price of $25,000 or less
5%
Bitcoin will have a price of $100,000 or more
0%
Neither will occur before 1 July 2021
95%
024_andrew and The Economist ask:

Before 18 September 2021, will Boris Johnson cease to be prime minister of the United Kingdom?

1%

Chance
510 Forecasters • 1553 Forecasts
Started Sep 18, 2020 05:00PM UTC
Closing Sep 18, 2021 07:01AM UTC
Adam Grant asks:

When will SpaceX's satellite internet service, Starlink, begin offering commercial service in North America?

388 Forecasters • 1215 Forecasts
Started Aug 14, 2020 05:00PM UTC
Closing Jul 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC
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Before 1 January 2021
0%
Between 1 January 2021 and 31 March 2021
0%
Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021
1%
Not before 1 July 2021
99%
Adam Grant asks:

Before 15 August 2021, will Alexei Navalny be convicted on any fraud charges related to his activities with his non-profit organizations?

10%

Chance
466 Forecasters • 1021 Forecasts
Started Feb 24, 2021 09:30PM UTC
Closing Aug 15, 2021 07:01AM UTC
Adam Grant and Tim Harford ask:

How many total confirmed cases of COVID-19 will the World Health Organization (WHO) report for Brazil as of 31 July 2021?

260 Forecasters • 1016 Forecasts
Started Mar 12, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closing Jul 31, 2021 07:01AM UTC
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Fewer than 14.5 million
0%
Between 14.5 million and 16.0 million, inclusive
0%
More than 16.0 million but fewer than 17.5 million
0%
Between 17.5 million and 19.0 million, inclusive
5%
More than 19.0 million
95%
Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Will there be a complex coordinated terrorist attack (CCTA) in the United States before 1 September 2021?

5%

Chance
185 Forecasters • 929 Forecasts
Started Sep 11, 2020 05:00PM UTC
Closing Sep 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC
The Mercator Institute for China Studies (MERICS) and WBHumanoid ask:

Before 1 January 2022, will the United States Olympic Committee announce that it is boycotting the 2022 Winter Olympics?

3%

Chance
246 Forecasters • 889 Forecasts
Started Aug 28, 2020 05:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC
Adam Grant asks:

For how many weeks will Adam Grant's "Think Again" be on the New York Times Best Sellers list for Combined Print & E-Book Nonfiction between 21 February 2021 and 11 July 2021?

327 Forecasters • 877 Forecasts
Started Feb 24, 2021 09:30PM UTC
Closing Jul 04, 2021 07:01AM UTC
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Fewer than 4
0%
Between 4 and 8
0%
Between 9 and 13
67%
Between 14 and 18
32%
More than 18
1%
The Economist asks:

What will be China's year-on-year GDP growth rate for the second quarter of 2021?

289 Forecasters • 875 Forecasts
Started Nov 27, 2020 06:00PM UTC
Closing Jul 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC
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Less than 5.0%
0%
Between 5.0% and 6.0%, inclusive
2%
More than 6.0% but less than 7.0%
25%
Between 7.0% and 8.0%, inclusive
48%
More than 8.0%
25%
Adam Grant asks:

What will be the delinquency rate on commercial real estate loans (excluding farmland) in the United States in the second quarter of 2021?

283 Forecasters • 842 Forecasts
Started Oct 02, 2020 05:00PM UTC
Closing Jul 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC
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Less than 2.00%
91%
Between 2.00% and 4.00%, inclusive
9%
More than 4.00% but less than 6.00%
0%
Between 6.00% and 8.00%, inclusive
0%
More than 8.00%
0%
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