Status

Type

Sort By

Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

How many fatal COVID-19 vaccine breakthrough cases will be reported to the CDC as of 10 January 2022?

60 Forecasters • 279 Forecasts
Started Aug 06, 2021 05:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 10, 2022 08:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Fewer than 6,000
0%
Between 6,000 and 12,000, inclusive
0%
More than 12,000 but fewer than 18,000
50%
Between 18,000 and 24,000, inclusive
49%
More than 24,000 but fewer than 30,000
1%
30,000 or more
0%
The Economist asks:

Will the US FDA approve a drug used to reverse the effects of Alzheimer's disease on the brain and/or approve a vaccine to prevent Alzheimer's disease as of 2035?

80%

Chance
175 Forecasters • 220 Forecasts
Started Jun 27, 2021 03:00AM UTC
Closed Oct 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC
The Economist asks:

How many opioid overdoses resulting in death will occur in the US in 2026?

107 Forecasters • 171 Forecasts
Started Jun 27, 2021 03:00AM UTC
Closed Oct 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Fewer than 25,000
0%
Between 25,000 and 40,000, inclusive
12%
More than 40,000 but fewer than 55,000
30%
Between 55,000 and 70,000, inclusive
42%
More than 70,000
16%
The Economist asks:

How many RNA vaccines and therapeutics for humans will be FDA-approved as of 2031?

131 Forecasters • 209 Forecasts
Started Jun 27, 2021 03:00AM UTC
Closed Oct 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Fewer than 10
6%
Between 10 and 100, inclusive
63%
More than 100 but fewer than 250
26%
Between 250 and 500, inclusive
5%
More than 500
0%
The Economist asks:

Will the Nobel Foundation announce that artificial intelligence has won or would be eligible to win a Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine before 2036?

3%

Chance
185 Forecasters • 242 Forecasts
Started Jun 27, 2021 03:00AM UTC
Closed Oct 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC
Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

When will the percentage of adults in US households that are teleworking because of the coronavirus pandemic fall below 18.0%?

88 Forecasters • 279 Forecasts
Started Jun 24, 2021 09:00PM UTC
Closed Nov 09, 2021 08:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Before 6 July 2021
0%
Between 6 July 2021 and 16 August 2021
0%
Between 17 August 2021 and 27 September 2021
0%
Between 28 September 2021 and 8 November 2021
9%
Not before 9 November 2021
90%

When will people in Guangdong no longer be required to show a negative COVID-19 test in order to leave the Chinese province?

37 Forecasters • 152 Forecasts
Started Jun 11, 2021 05:00PM UTC
Closed Oct 12, 2021 07:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Before 11 July 2021
0%
Between 11 July 2021 and 11 August 2021
0%
Between 12 August 2021 and 11 September 2021
0%
Between 12 September 2021 and 11 October 2021
0%
Not before 12 October 2021
100%
Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Will the monthly occupancy level of European hotels next reach 50.0% or higher before June 2021, according to Smith Travel Research?

3%

Chance
110 Forecasters • 442 Forecasts
Started Dec 18, 2020 06:00PM UTC
Closed Jun 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC
Econja2018 asks:

Will net international migration between the U.S. and abroad for 2021 be higher than the net international migration for 2020?

100%

Chance
92 Forecasters • 225 Forecasts
Started Dec 11, 2020 06:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC

On 1 March 2021, how many states will report a COVID-19 fatality rate of 5.0% or higher?

146 Forecasters • 456 Forecasts
Started Aug 18, 2020 05:00PM UTC
Closed Mar 01, 2021 08:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Zero
99%
Between 1 and 5
1%
Between 6 and 10
0%
Between 11 and 15
0%
16 or more
0%
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username
Cancel