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Tolga asks:

Will the presidents of Russia and Ukraine meet in person before 1 August 2021?

54 Forecasters • 69 Forecasts
Started Apr 30, 2021 05:00PM UTC
Closing Aug 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC
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Yes, in either Russia or Ukraine
1%
Yes, somewhere other than Russia or Ukraine
9%
No
90%
Adam Grant asks:

What will be Saudi Arabia's crude oil production for July 2021, according to OPEC?

88 Forecasters • 146 Forecasts
Started Apr 09, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closing Aug 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC
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Less than 8,000 tb/d
0%
Between 8,000 tb/d and 8,500 tb/d, inclusive
4%
More than 8,500 tb/d but less than 9,000 tb/d
28%
Between 9,000 tb/d and 9,500 tb/d, inclusive
51%
More than 9,500 tb/d
17%
The Mercator Institute for China Studies (MERICS) asks:

What will be the Chinese renminbi's share as a global payments currency in December 2021, according to SWIFT?

60 Forecasters • 120 Forecasts
Started Apr 09, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC
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Less than 2.00%
6%
Between 2.00% and 2.50%, inclusive
67%
More than 2.50% but less than 3.00%
27%
3.00% or more
0%

Before 1 January 2022, will North Korea detonate a nuclear device and/or launch an ICBM with an estimated range of at least 10,000km?

137 Forecasters • 282 Forecasts
Started Mar 05, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC
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Yes, only detonate a nuclear device
5%
Yes, only launch an ICBM
34%
Yes, both
2%
No
59%
Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Will the People's Republic of China's (PRC's) military expenditure as a percentage of GDP be greater in 2021 than it was in 2019?

95%

Chance
115 Forecasters • 215 Forecasts
Started Feb 26, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC
Private Superforecasting Workshop and erikbays ask:

Before 1 January 2022, will the U.S. officially rejoin the JCPOA?

50%

Chance
96 Forecasters • 354 Forecasts
Started Feb 12, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC

Will Saudi Arabia diplomatically recognize the State of Israel in 2021?

5%

Chance
105 Forecasters • 231 Forecasts
Started Feb 05, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC
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