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Private
Superforecasting Workshop
asks:
Will the People's Republic of China's (PRC's) military expenditure as a percentage of GDP be greater in 2021 than it was in 2019?
70%
Chance
33 Forecasters • 40 Forecasts
Started
Feb 26, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closing
Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC
The
Mercator Institute for China Studies (MERICS)
asks:
Will France grant the China Global Television Network (CGTN) a license to broadcast in France before 1 January 2022?
40%
Chance
19 Forecasters • 21 Forecasts
Started
Feb 26, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closing
Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC
Private
Superforecasting Workshop
and
erikbays
ask:
Before 1 January 2022, will the U.S. officially rejoin the JCPOA?
66%
Chance
65 Forecasters • 115 Forecasts
Started
Feb 12, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closing
Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC
Will Saudi Arabia diplomatically recognize the State of Israel in 2021?
5%
Chance
71 Forecasters • 122 Forecasts
Started
Feb 05, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closing
Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC
Private
Superforecasting Workshop
asks:
Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel of India and the People's Republic of China before 1 December 2021?
16%
Chance
64 Forecasters • 87 Forecasts
Started
Feb 05, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closing
Dec 01, 2021 08:01AM UTC
Private
Superforecasting Workshop
asks:
Will U.S. President Joe Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin hold a bilateral meeting in 2021?
12%
Chance
181 Forecasters • 304 Forecasts
Started
Jan 22, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closing
Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC
Private
Superforecasting Workshop
asks:
Before 1 January 2022, will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces of Iran and the United States either in Iran or at sea?
5%
Chance
107 Forecasters • 136 Forecasts
Started
Jan 21, 2021 01:00AM UTC
Closing
Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC
Will Nicaragua diplomatically recognize the People's Republic of China before 7 November 2021?
4%
Chance
48 Forecasters • 75 Forecasts
Started
Jan 15, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closing
Nov 07, 2021 07:01AM UTC
Will a Russian senior government official or Russian naval vessel visit Nicaragua before 7 November 2021?
45%
Chance
43 Forecasters • 82 Forecasts
Started
Jan 15, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closing
Nov 07, 2021 07:01AM UTC
Private
Superforecasting Workshop
asks:
Before 15 March 2021, will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces of Iran and the United States either in Iran or at sea?
1%
Chance
159 Forecasters • 258 Forecasts
Started
Jan 06, 2021 08:30PM UTC
Closing
Mar 15, 2021 07:01AM UTC
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