Good Judgment® Open

Before 1 September 2022, will Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan sign an agreement governing the filling of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) reservoir?

5%

Chance

22 Forecasters • 29 Forecasts

Started Sep 17, 2021 05:00PM UTC

Closing Sep 01, 2022 07:01AM UTC

Before 2 October 2021, will the Taliban submit credentials to the Secretary-General of the UN to represent Afghanistan for the 76th UN General Assembly session?

110 Forecasters • 382 Forecasts

Started Aug 27, 2021 05:00PM UTC

Closing Oct 02, 2021 07:01AM UTC

Show All Possible Answers

Yes, and their credentials will be recognized

Yes, but their credentials will not be recognized

99%

asks:

Will the 26th UN Climate Change Conference of the Parties (COP26) announce the finalization of the "Paris Rulebook," the rules for implementing the 2015 Paris Agreement, before 16 November 2021?

12%

Chance

79 Forecasters • 116 Forecasts

Started Aug 27, 2021 05:00PM UTC

Closing Nov 16, 2021 08:01AM UTC

asks:

Will the UK or EU trigger Article 16 of the Northern Ireland Protocol before 1 February 2022?

9%

Chance

66 Forecasters • 106 Forecasts

Started Aug 20, 2021 05:00PM UTC

Closing Feb 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC

erikbays asks:

Before 13 February 2022, will there be a lethal confrontation in Iran or at sea between the national military or law enforcement forces of Iran and those of either Israel or a Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) member state?

9%

Chance

62 Forecasters • 98 Forecasts

Started Aug 13, 2021 05:00PM UTC

Closing Feb 13, 2022 08:01AM UTC

Columbus asks:

Before 1 January 2022, will the Nord Stream 2 pipeline begin delivering natural gas to Germany?

62%

Chance

72 Forecasters • 240 Forecasts

Started Aug 06, 2021 05:00PM UTC

Closing Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC

Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Before 1 January 2023, will the Afghan government and the Afghan Taliban sign an agreement that includes provisions for the establishment and/or recognition of a national government?

0%

Chance

81 Forecasters • 232 Forecasts

Started Jul 30, 2021 05:00PM UTC

Closing Jan 01, 2023 08:01AM UTC

Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Before 2 October 2021, will the UN General Assembly recognize delegates from the National Unity Government (NUG) as representing Myanmar for the 76th General Assembly session?

0%

Chance

48 Forecasters • 140 Forecasts

Started Jul 30, 2021 05:00PM UTC

Closing Oct 02, 2021 07:01AM UTC

Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces of Egypt and Ethiopia before 1 January 2022?

1%

Chance

85 Forecasters • 118 Forecasts

Started Jul 23, 2021 05:00PM UTC

Closing Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC

Before 1 January 2022, will the European Commission (EC) recommend that the Council of the European Union authorize the EC to open negotiations with Taiwan on an investment agreement?

2%

Chance

63 Forecasters • 140 Forecasts

Started Jul 09, 2021 05:00PM UTC

Closing Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC

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Before 1 September 2022, will Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan sign an agreement governing the filling of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) reservoir?

5%

Before 2 October 2021, will the Taliban submit credentials to the Secretary-General of the UN to represent Afghanistan for the 76th UN General Assembly session?

Will the 26th UN Climate Change Conference of the Parties (COP26) announce the finalization of the "Paris Rulebook," the rules for implementing the 2015 Paris Agreement, before 16 November 2021?

12%

Will the UK or EU trigger Article 16 of the Northern Ireland Protocol before 1 February 2022?

9%

Before 13 February 2022, will there be a lethal confrontation in Iran or at sea between the national military or law enforcement forces of Iran and those of either Israel or a Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) member state?

9%

Before 1 January 2022, will the Nord Stream 2 pipeline begin delivering natural gas to Germany?

62%

Before 1 January 2023, will the Afghan government and the Afghan Taliban sign an agreement that includes provisions for the establishment and/or recognition of a national government?

0%

Before 2 October 2021, will the UN General Assembly recognize delegates from the National Unity Government (NUG) as representing Myanmar for the 76th General Assembly session?

0%

Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces of Egypt and Ethiopia before 1 January 2022?

1%

Before 1 January 2022, will the European Commission (EC) recommend that the Council of the European Union authorize the EC to open negotiations with Taiwan on an investment agreement?

2%

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