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Show less
asks:
Will Rishi Sunak cease to be the UK Chancellor of the Exchequer before 1 January 2022?
2%
Chance
76 Forecasters • 117 Forecasts
Started
Aug 20, 2021 05:00PM UTC
Closing
Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC
asks:
Will Sir Keir Starmer face a formal challenge for the leadership of the Labour Party before 4 April 2022?
10%
Chance
74 Forecasters • 111 Forecasts
Started
Aug 20, 2021 05:00PM UTC
Closing
Apr 04, 2022 07:01AM UTC
Before 1 January 2022, will Kais Saied cease to be the president of Tunisia?
1%
Chance
46 Forecasters • 77 Forecasts
Started
Aug 13, 2021 05:00PM UTC
Closing
Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC
Private
Superforecasting Workshop
asks:
Will Abiy Ahmed cease to be the prime minister of Ethiopia by way of extraconstitutional events before 1 January 2022?
3%
Chance
50 Forecasters • 85 Forecasts
Started
Jul 30, 2021 05:00PM UTC
Closing
Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC
Who will win the 2021 presidential election in Chile?
50 Forecasters • 153 Forecasts
Started
Jul 21, 2021 02:28PM UTC
Closing
Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC
Show All Possible Answers
Gabriel Boric
43%
Sebastián Sichel
42%
Another candidate
15%
There will not be a presidential election in Chile before 1 January 2022
0%
Will Haiti hold a presidential election before 1 January 2022?
8%
Chance
61 Forecasters • 243 Forecasts
Started
Jul 16, 2021 05:00PM UTC
Closing
Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC
The
Mercator Institute for China Studies (MERICS)
asks:
Between 26 January 2021 and 31 December 2021, how many members of the Politburo will Chinese state media announce have been arrested and/or expelled from their posts?
77 Forecasters • 238 Forecasts
Started
Feb 26, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closing
Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC
Show All Possible Answers
0
95%
1
4%
2 or more
1%
Private
Superforecasting Workshop
asks:
Will the powers of the government of Myanmar cease to be held by the military before 5 February 2022?
0%
Chance
85 Forecasters • 227 Forecasts
Started
Feb 12, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closing
Feb 05, 2022 08:01AM UTC
Econja2018
asks:
Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 January 2022?
0%
Chance
206 Forecasters • 422 Forecasts
Started
Feb 10, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closing
Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC
How many vacancies will arise on the U.S. Supreme Court in 2021?
174 Forecasters • 660 Forecasts
Started
Jan 29, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closing
Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC
Show All Possible Answers
0
95%
1
5%
2
0%
3 or more
0%
1
2
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