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Adam Grant
asks:
Before 15 August 2021, will Alexei Navalny be convicted on any fraud charges related to his activities with his non-profit organizations?
99%
Chance
4 Forecasters • 4 Forecasts
Started
Feb 24, 2021 09:30PM UTC
Closing
Aug 15, 2021 07:01AM UTC
Private
Superforecasting Workshop
and
erikbays
ask:
Before 1 January 2022, will the U.S. officially rejoin the JCPOA?
76%
Chance
59 Forecasters • 102 Forecasts
Started
Feb 12, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closing
Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC
Private
Superforecasting Workshop
asks:
Will the powers of the government of Myanmar cease to be held by the military before 5 February 2022?
5%
Chance
46 Forecasters • 68 Forecasts
Started
Feb 12, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closing
Feb 05, 2022 08:01AM UTC
Will Saudi Arabia diplomatically recognize the State of Israel in 2021?
5%
Chance
68 Forecasters • 115 Forecasts
Started
Feb 05, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closing
Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC
Private
Superforecasting Workshop
asks:
Between 5 February 2021 and 31 October 2021, will anti-government protests in Russia result in five or more fatalities?
10%
Chance
79 Forecasters • 117 Forecasts
Started
Feb 05, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closing
Nov 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC
The Economist
asks:
Before 1 October 2021, will the Republic of Chad announce that legislative elections currently scheduled for 24 October 2021 will be postponed or canceled?
75%
Chance
49 Forecasters • 68 Forecasts
Started
Jan 29, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closing
Oct 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC
Will the Scottish National Party win a majority of seats in the next Scottish Parliament election?
90%
Chance
136 Forecasters • 197 Forecasts
Started
Jan 15, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closing
May 06, 2021 07:01AM UTC
Will Nicaragua diplomatically recognize the People's Republic of China before 7 November 2021?
4%
Chance
48 Forecasters • 75 Forecasts
Started
Jan 15, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closing
Nov 07, 2021 07:01AM UTC
The Economist
asks:
How many seats will the United Russia party win in the 2021 Russian State Duma elections?
86 Forecasters • 129 Forecasts
Started
Jan 15, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closing
Sep 19, 2021 07:01AM UTC
Show All Possible Answers
Fewer than 226 seats
1%
Between 226 seats and 299 seats
22%
300 seats or more
76%
Russian State Duma elections will not be held before 20 September 2021
1%
Private
Superforecasting Workshop
asks:
Before 15 July 2021, will an election be held for Moldova's parliament?
34 Forecasters • 60 Forecasts
Started
Jan 15, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closing
Jul 15, 2021 07:01AM UTC
Show All Possible Answers
Yes, and the PSRM will win the most seats
5%
Yes, and the PSRM will tie or not win the most
94%
No
1%
1
2
3
4
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