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Adam Grant asks:

Before 15 August 2021, will Alexei Navalny be convicted on any fraud charges related to his activities with his non-profit organizations?

99%

Chance
4 Forecasters • 4 Forecasts
Started Feb 24, 2021 09:30PM UTC
Closing Aug 15, 2021 07:01AM UTC
Private Superforecasting Workshop and erikbays ask:

Before 1 January 2022, will the U.S. officially rejoin the JCPOA?

76%

Chance
59 Forecasters • 102 Forecasts
Started Feb 12, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC
Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Will the powers of the government of Myanmar cease to be held by the military before 5 February 2022?

5%

Chance
46 Forecasters • 68 Forecasts
Started Feb 12, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closing Feb 05, 2022 08:01AM UTC

Will Saudi Arabia diplomatically recognize the State of Israel in 2021?

5%

Chance
68 Forecasters • 115 Forecasts
Started Feb 05, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC
Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Between 5 February 2021 and 31 October 2021, will anti-government protests in Russia result in five or more fatalities?

10%

Chance
79 Forecasters • 117 Forecasts
Started Feb 05, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closing Nov 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC
The Economist asks:

Before 1 October 2021, will the Republic of Chad announce that legislative elections currently scheduled for 24 October 2021 will be postponed or canceled?

75%

Chance
49 Forecasters • 68 Forecasts
Started Jan 29, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closing Oct 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC

Will the Scottish National Party win a majority of seats in the next Scottish Parliament election?

90%

Chance
136 Forecasters • 197 Forecasts
Started Jan 15, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closing May 06, 2021 07:01AM UTC

Will Nicaragua diplomatically recognize the People's Republic of China before 7 November 2021?

4%

Chance
48 Forecasters • 75 Forecasts
Started Jan 15, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closing Nov 07, 2021 07:01AM UTC
The Economist asks:

How many seats will the United Russia party win in the 2021 Russian State Duma elections?

86 Forecasters • 129 Forecasts
Started Jan 15, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closing Sep 19, 2021 07:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Fewer than 226 seats
1%
Between 226 seats and 299 seats
22%
300 seats or more
76%
Russian State Duma elections will not be held before 20 September 2021
1%
Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Before 15 July 2021, will an election be held for Moldova's parliament?

34 Forecasters • 60 Forecasts
Started Jan 15, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closing Jul 15, 2021 07:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Yes, and the PSRM will win the most seats
5%
Yes, and the PSRM will tie or not win the most
94%
No
1%
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