Introducing: Superforecasting Fundamentals
Good Judgment has released Superforecasting Fundamentals, an online training course. The course is available now for $200 per participant, and group rates are available upon inquiry at [email protected].
In under two hours, Good Judgment's training modules convey fundamental skills and knowledge that can help anyone become a better, smarter forecaster. The course is self-paced and includes content from Good Judgment’s years of research on forecasting accuracy:
  • Understanding and testing probabilistic reasoning
  • Applying base rates and taking both inside and outside views
  • Refining calibration to avoid being overconfident or underconfident
  • Building awareness of cognitive biases
To learn more about the course, visit
Free Resources

GJ Open Resources
Getting acquainted with the basics:
1. Introduction to Forecasting on GJ Open [Video]
2. Keeping Score on GJ Open [Interactive Video]
3. The Ordered Categorical Scoring Rule on GJ Open [PDF]
[email protected]
Research Insights from Philip Tetlock and Barbara Mellers
1. Building Better Forecasters [Video]
2. Why an Open Mind is Key to Making Better Predictions [Video]
3. Superforecaster Full Video [Video]
Edge Master Class 2015:
A Short Course in Superforecasting with Philip Tetlock
Class I: What We Discover When We Start Scoring Accuracy
Class II: Prying Open Closed Minds in Unnecessarily Polarized Debates
Class III: Counterfactual History: The Elusive Control Groups in Policy Debates
Class IV: Skillful Backward and Forward Reasoning in Time
Class V: Condensing it All Into Four Big Problems and a Killer App Solution