The really big variable in all of my election predictions is this: what is the chance Trump gets to 1237 by the end of the primaries?
I was lowballing this, at 15%. I now think maybe it's more like 25%. There are so many moving pieces it's hard to say at this point - he could lose Wisconsin, he could do better than expected in New York or California, where it is winner-take-most, due to the winner-take-all per district allocation. He could even get over 50% in NY, if he gets a big home state boost, giving him all the NY delegates.
He needs 60% of the delegates from here on to get to 1237, but due to the non-proportional nature of most of the remaining primaries, that looks like it could be possible with just a plurality. Kasich seems to be really screwing the pooch by staying in!
I also think I lowballed his chances of obtaining the extra 30 or so delegates during pre-convention, in the case that he gets really close (eg 1200+). I now put that at 70% chance. And even if he is say 100 delegates off, I shouldn't give him zero chance of getting to 1237 preconvention from there either - let's say 10%.
Let's say: > 1237: 25%
> 1200 , < 1237: 40%, times chance to convert of 70% = .28
< 1200: 35%, times chance to convert of 10% = .035
So the chance that Trump gets to 1237 before the first vote is 56.5%
The really big variable in all of my election predictions is this: what is the chance Trump gets to 1237 by the end of the primaries?
I was lowballing this, at 15%. I now think maybe it's more like 25%. There are so many moving pieces it's hard to say at this point - he could lose Wisconsin, he could do better than expected in New York or California, where it is winner-take-most, due to the winner-take-all per district allocation. He could even get over 50% in NY, if he gets a big home state boost, giving him all the NY delegates.
He needs 60% of the delegates from here on to get to 1237, but due to the non-proportional nature of most of the remaining primaries, that looks like it could be possible with just a plurality. Kasich seems to be really screwing the pooch by staying in!
I also think I lowballed his chances of obtaining the extra 30 or so delegates during pre-convention, in the case that he gets really close (eg 1200+). I now put that at 70% chance. And even if he is say 100 delegates off, I shouldn't give him zero chance of getting to 1237 preconvention from there either - let's say 10%.
Let's say: > 1237: 25%
> 1200 , < 1237: 40%, times chance to convert of 70% = .28
< 1200: 35%, times chance to convert of 10% = .035
So the chance that Trump gets to 1237 before the first vote is 56.5%