Started Jan 21, 2016 03:50PM UTC   •   Closed Jul 18, 2016 06:59AM UTC

Will the Republican candidate for president win the party's nomination on the first ballot, at the party's convention in July?

This question was closed with the answer "Yes" on 20 July 2016 with an end date of 19 July 2016. On 19 July 2016, Donald Trump became the official nominee of the Republican party on the first vote (USA Today, CNN).
As the Republicans enter primary season, the nomination race remains tight and a brokered convention could be possible (Time, Washington Post). A candidate must receive the votes of 1,236 delegates (50%+1) in order to win the Republican party's nomination (GOP). Recommended Questions Who will win the Republican Party nomination for the US presidential election? Who will win the Democratic Party nomination for the US presidential election?

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 99.00%
No 1.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 1225
Average for questions older than 6 months: 249
Number of Forecasts 3850
Average for questions older than 6 months: 677
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.087
2.
-0.087
4.
-0.087
5.
-0.087

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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