Started Nov 17, 2015 06:00PM UTC   •   Closed Jul 20, 2016 06:00PM UTC

Who will win the Republican Party nomination for the US presidential election?

This question was closed with the answer "Donald Trump" on 20 July 2016 with an end date of 19 July 2016. On 19 July 2016, Donald Trump become the official nominee of the Republican party (CNN, Newsweek).
Sign up and enter your own forecast, if you're here for The Economist or Monkey Cage Challenge! As the US primary season approaches, the race for the Republican Party nomination remains tight (The World In 2016). Recommended Questions Who will win the Democratic Party nomination for the US presidential election?

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Jeb Bush 0%
Ben Carson 0%
Ted Cruz 0%
Carly Fiorina 0%
Marco Rubio 0%
Donald Trump 100%
None of the above 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 3092
Average for questions older than 6 months: 245
Number of Forecasts 10612
Average for questions older than 6 months: 672
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

2.
-0.626
3.
-0.618
4.
-0.615
5.
-0.603

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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