The opinion polls indicate that the Republican Parties candidate should win. To lose the Republicans would need to choose a very poor candidate or really screw up the campaign. As in many elections now (for the US President for example) voters vote against the candidate they hate as much as for the candidate they want. The NF seems to have strong support in 27% to 39% range, for the first round but in a second round the only candidate that would risk losing to Le Pen would be Hollande. Hollande seems so unpopular that unless the Republicans pick a really poor candidate he would not get into the second round. It appears that the NF are extremely likely to get the second round. So the logical thing for each of the other parties to do would be to choose the candidate that can most certainly beat her. The socialists will find it difficult to find such a candidate, the Republicans have several who appear to be likely to beat Le Pen; Juppe seems to be more popular (or less unpopular) than Sarkozy. There is a chance that Macron could win, but the opinion polls that suggested he would do well assumed that he would be a candidate for the Socialists, he has now said he hopes to stand for a centerist party. Political parties in France seem to be much more like the personal team of a politician and rise and fall with their leaders, than the more institutional permanent political parties in most other countries. (The politicians are bigger than the parties in France.) So its not clear if breaking with the unpopular PS of Hollande would befit or harm Macron. Maybe he is too new to have as many voters hate him as hate the other candidates.
Also, it looks that in the 1st round Valls or Macron each has a chance to beat Sarcozy and then go and beat Le Pen. How much is that scenario plausible? It looks that your bet is based on assumption that Juppe will lead the Republicans and Hollande Socialists. The socialist primary is in January - Macron can reconsider (not) running for Socialsts. Am I wrong?
Yes Macron. I was not sure that Valls would get into the 2nd round against. I had discounted Macron being a PS candidate, but you could be right it may be possible.
The opinion polls indicate that the Republican Parties candidate should win. To lose the Republicans would need to choose a very poor candidate or really screw up the campaign. As in many elections now (for the US President for example) voters vote against the candidate they hate as much as for the candidate they want. The NF seems to have strong support in 27% to 39% range, for the first round but in a second round the only candidate that would risk losing to Le Pen would be Hollande. Hollande seems so unpopular that unless the Republicans pick a really poor candidate he would not get into the second round. It appears that the NF are extremely likely to get the second round. So the logical thing for each of the other parties to do would be to choose the candidate that can most certainly beat her. The socialists will find it difficult to find such a candidate, the Republicans have several who appear to be likely to beat Le Pen; Juppe seems to be more popular (or less unpopular) than Sarkozy. There is a chance that Macron could win, but the opinion polls that suggested he would do well assumed that he would be a candidate for the Socialists, he has now said he hopes to stand for a centerist party. Political parties in France seem to be much more like the personal team of a politician and rise and fall with their leaders, than the more institutional permanent political parties in most other countries. (The politicians are bigger than the parties in France.) So its not clear if breaking with the unpopular PS of Hollande would befit or harm Macron. Maybe he is too new to have as many voters hate him as hate the other candidates.
Whom do you see as the None of the above? Macron?
Also, it looks that in the 1st round Valls or Macron each has a chance to beat Sarcozy and then go and beat Le Pen. How much is that scenario plausible? It looks that your bet is based on assumption that Juppe will lead the Republicans and Hollande Socialists. The socialist primary is in January - Macron can reconsider (not) running for Socialsts. Am I wrong?
And of course, thanks for the analysis!
Yes Macron. I was not sure that Valls would get into the 2nd round against. I had discounted Macron being a PS candidate, but you could be right it may be possible.
That's what I was wondering too: If Macron could end up as the Socialist candidate. Hollande is so unpopular.