Started Aug 31, 2016 05:00PM UTC   •   Closed May 07, 2017 05:00PM UTC

Which party's candidate will win the next presidential election in France?

France is scheduled to hold its next presidential election in April 2017, with a possible run-off in May. Incumbent Francois Hollande may run again, but he has not yet committed to doing so (France 24 (3/2/16), France 24 (7/6/16)). Opinion polls so far suggest that at least a few parties' candidates could win (The Telegraph, Wikipedia). Recommended Questions Who will win Austria's upcoming presidential election? Before 1 July 2017, will any other European Union (EU) member state set a date for a referendum on leaving the EU? Before 2018, will it be officially announced that any state is withdrawing from the Schengen agreement? This question was closed as "none of the above" with an end date of 7 May 2017. Emmanuel Macron, the En Marche candidate, won the French election (Financial Times, Reuters). See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.



Question clarification
Issued on 05/01/17 01:13pm
If Marie Le Pen wins the French election, the question will resolve on "National Front".
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
National Front 24%
Socialist Party 0%
Republicans 0%
None of the above 76%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 1533
Average for questions older than 6 months: 245
Number of Forecasts 4440
Average for questions older than 6 months: 672
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

2.
-0.843
3.
-0.761
4.
-0.756
5.
-0.755

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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