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The Monkey Cage asks

How many House seats held by Democrats from congressional districts carried by Donald Trump in 2016 will be won by Republicans in the 2018 midterm elections?

72 Forecasters • 132 Forecasts
Started Jul 25, 2018 07:34PM UTC
Closing Nov 06, 2018 07:59AM UTC
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1 seat or less
21%
Between 2 and 4 seats, inclusive
66%
Between 5 and 7 seats, inclusive
13%
Between 8 and 10 seats, inclusive
0%
Between 11 and 13 seats, inclusive
0%
The Monkey Cage asks

How many House seats held by Republicans from congressional districts carried by Hillary Clinton in 2016 will be won by Democrats in the 2018 midterm elections?

62 Forecasters • 115 Forecasts
Started Jul 25, 2018 07:30PM UTC
Closing Nov 06, 2018 07:59AM UTC
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5 seats or less
0%
Between 6 and 10 seats, inclusive
15%
Between 11 and 15 seats, inclusive
30%
Between 16 and 20 seats, inclusive
46%
Between 21 and 25 seats, inclusive
9%
The Monkey Cage asks

Will Dean Heller (R-NV) be re-elected this November?

40%

Chance
124 Forecasters • 298 Forecasts
Started Apr 04, 2018 05:00PM UTC
Closing Nov 06, 2018 07:59AM UTC
The Monkey Cage asks

Which party will hold a majority in the US House of Representatives after the 2018 midterm elections?

381 Forecasters • 861 Forecasts
Started Feb 14, 2018 06:00PM UTC
Closing Nov 06, 2018 07:59AM UTC
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Democratic Party, with 230 or more representatives
17%
Democratic Party, with less than 230 representatives
56%
Republican Party, with less than 230 representatives
25%
Republican Party, with 230 or more representatives
2%
The Monkey Cage asks

Which party will hold a majority in the US Senate after the 2018 midterm elections?

305 Forecasters • 659 Forecasts
Started Feb 14, 2018 06:00PM UTC
Closing Nov 06, 2018 07:59AM UTC
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Democratic Party, with 53 senators or more
0%
Democratic Party, with less than 53 senators
29%
Republican party, with less than 53 senators
60%
Republican Party, with 53 senators or more
11%
  Fareed Zakaria GPS asks

Will Bashar al-Assad cease to be president of Syria before 1 January 2019?

5%

Chance
3853 Forecasters • 5413 Forecasts
Started Dec 15, 2017 06:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2019 07:59AM UTC
  Fareed Zakaria GPS asks

Before 1 January 2019, will any other EU member state schedule a referendum on leaving the EU or the eurozone?

5%

Chance
3347 Forecasters • 4443 Forecasts
Started Dec 15, 2017 06:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2019 07:59AM UTC
  Fareed Zakaria GPS asks

Will the Democrats gain control of Congress in the 2018 midterm elections?

4586 Forecasters • 7434 Forecasts
Started Dec 15, 2017 06:00PM UTC
Closing Nov 06, 2018 07:59AM UTC
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No
26%
Yes, both chambers
16%
Yes, the Senate, but not the House of Representatives
13%
Yes, the House of Representatives, but not the Senate
45%