Status

Type

Sort By

Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Between 18 June 2021 and 18 July 2021, will protests in Peru result in any fatalities?

40 Forecasters • 56 Forecasts
Started Jun 17, 2021 10:00PM UTC
Closing Jul 18, 2021 07:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
No
71%
Yes, between 1 and 10
29%
Yes, between 11 and 50
0%
Yes, between 51 and 150
0%
Yes, more than 150
0%
CJH asks:

Following the 2021 German Bundestag elections, which parties will be part of the new government?

88 Forecasters • 311 Forecasts
Started Apr 16, 2021 05:00PM UTC
Closing Sep 26, 2021 07:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
The CDU but not the Green Party
9%
The Green Party but not the CDU
19%
Both the CDU and the Green Party
66%
Neither the CDU nor the Green Party
0%
No government will be formed before 31 December 2021
6%
CJH asks:

Will California hold a recall election for Governor Gavin Newsom before 1 January 2022?

79 Forecasters • 274 Forecasts
Started Feb 19, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Yes, and Newsom will be recalled
3%
Yes, but Newsom will not be recalled
97%
No
0%
The Economist asks:

How many seats will the United Russia party win in the 2021 Russian State Duma elections?

127 Forecasters • 355 Forecasts
Started Jan 15, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closing Sep 19, 2021 07:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Fewer than 226 seats
0%
Between 226 seats and 299 seats
30%
300 seats or more
70%
Russian State Duma elections will not be held before 20 September 2021
0%
Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Before 15 July 2021, will an election be held for Moldova's parliament?

45 Forecasters • 153 Forecasts
Started Jan 15, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closing Jul 15, 2021 07:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Yes, and the PSRM will win the most seats
15%
Yes, and the PSRM will tie or not win the most
84%
No
1%
The Economist asks:

When will a new Dutch government be sworn in after the 2021 general election?

106 Forecasters • 556 Forecasts
Started Jan 15, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closing Sep 18, 2021 07:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Between 18 March 2021 and 17 June 2021
0%
Between 18 June 2021 and 17 September 2021
85%
Not before 18 September 2021
15%
The Economist asks:

Will Mexico hold a referendum on President Andrés Manuel López Obrador before 1 September 2021?

88 Forecasters • 194 Forecasts
Started Jan 08, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closing Sep 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Yes, and a majority of the vote will be in support of President López Obrador
1%
Yes, but a majority of the vote will not be in support of President López Obrador
0%
No
99%
The Economist asks:

Before 1 October 2021, will any group of Amazon employees in the U.S. vote in the affirmative to form a union?

3%

Chance
171 Forecasters • 527 Forecasts
Started Jan 08, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closing Oct 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC

Will Daniel Ortega cease to be the president of Nicaragua before 11 January 2022?

4%

Chance
40 Forecasters • 151 Forecasts
Started Jan 06, 2021 08:30PM UTC
Closing Jan 11, 2022 08:01AM UTC

Before 1 July 2021, will presidential and/or parliamentary elections be held in Kyrgyzstan?

32 Forecasters • 213 Forecasts
Started Dec 04, 2020 06:00PM UTC
Closing Jul 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Yes, only for president
100%
Yes, only for parliament
0%
Yes, for both president and parliament
0%
No
0%
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username
Cancel