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Who will be elected governor of Virginia in November 2017?

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72 Forecasters • 149 Forecasts
Started Aug 11, 2017 05:00PM UTC Closing Nov 08, 2017 07:59AM UTC
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Ralph Northam (Democrat) by a margin greater than 5%
22%
Ralph Northam (Democrat) by a margin of 5% or less
56%
Ed Gillespie (Republican) by a margin of 5% or less
22%
Ed Gillespie (Republican) by a margin greater than 5%
0%
None of the above
0%

Who will win the special election for the Washington State Senate's 45th District?

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36 Forecasters • 86 Forecasts
Started Aug 11, 2017 05:00PM UTC Closing Nov 08, 2017 07:59AM UTC
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Manka Dhingra (Democrat) by a margin greater than 5%
59%
Manka Dhingra (Democrat) by a margin of 5% or less
33%
Jinyoung Lee Englund (Republican) by a margin of 5% or less
8%
Jinyoung Lee Englund (Republican) by a margin greater than 5%
0%
None of the above
0%

Before 1 January 2018, will the Catalan government hold a public vote on independence?

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105 Forecasters • 318 Forecasts
Started Aug 08, 2017 05:00PM UTC Closing Jan 01, 2018 07:59AM UTC
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Yes, and a majority will vote in favor of independence
68%
Yes, and a majority will vote against independence
6%
No
26%

Will the Kurdistan Regional Government hold a popular vote on independence before 1 January 2018?

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98 Forecasters • 444 Forecasts
Started Jun 20, 2017 05:00PM UTC Closing Jul 01, 2018 06:59AM UTC
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Yes, and a majority will vote in favor of independence
95%
Yes, but a majority will vote against independence
0%
No
5%
  The Economist and HFC ask

What percentage of the popular vote will the Alternative for Germany party win in Germany's next federal election?

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146 Forecasters • 672 Forecasts
Started Jun 06, 2017 05:00PM UTC Closing Oct 23, 2017 06:59AM UTC
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Less than 5%
0%
Between 5% and 10%, inclusive
46%
More than 10% but less than 15%
54%
15% or more
0%

Before 1 July 2018, will a date be set for a referendum on Northern Ireland's governance status?

1%

Chance
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163 Forecasters • 807 Forecasts
Started Mar 21, 2017 05:00PM UTC Closing Jul 01, 2018 06:59AM UTC

Will Angela Merkel be elected as chancellor of Germany after the 2017 Bundestag election?

98%

Chance
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510 Forecasters • 1607 Forecasts
Started Jan 24, 2017 06:00PM UTC Closing Dec 01, 2017 07:59AM UTC

When will the next Italian general election occur?

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160 Forecasters • 951 Forecasts
Started Jan 10, 2017 06:00PM UTC Closing Jan 01, 2018 07:59AM UTC
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Before 1 April 2017
0%
Between 1 April 2017 and 30 June 2017, inclusive
0%
Between 1 July 2017 and 30 September 2017, inclusive
0%
Between 1 October 2017 and 31 December 2017, inclusive
1%
Not before 1 January 2018
99%

Will Thailand hold general elections before 1 January 2018?

0%

Chance
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217 Forecasters • 1102 Forecasts
Started Oct 04, 2016 05:00PM UTC Closing Jan 01, 2018 07:59AM UTC