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tabhuth
asks:
Between 12 August 2022 and 18 February 2023, will former President Donald Trump be criminally charged with or indicted for a federal and/or state crime in the US?
58 Forecasters • 109 Forecasts
Started
Aug 12, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closing
Feb 18, 2023 08:01AM UTC
Show All Possible Answers
Yes, a federal crime only
20%
Yes, a state crime only
11%
Yes, both a federal crime and a state crime
21%
No
48%
When will the Council of the European Union (Council) declare a "Union alert" triggering a mandatory, EU-wide reduction in natural gas consumption?
32 Forecasters • 42 Forecasts
Started
Aug 12, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closing
Apr 01, 2023 07:01AM UTC
Show All Possible Answers
Before 1 October 2022
2%
Between 1 October 2022 and 31 December 2022
58%
Between 1 January 2023 and 31 March 2023
17%
Not before 1 April 2023
23%
Private
Superforecasting Workshop
asks:
Will an electrical blackout lasting at least one hour and affecting 60 million or more people in the US and/or Canada occur before 1 April 2023?
4%
Chance
44 Forecasters • 60 Forecasts
Started
Aug 05, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closing
Apr 01, 2023 07:01AM UTC
Private
Superforecasting Workshop
asks:
What will be the total passenger throughput at airports in China in December 2022?
16 Forecasters • 25 Forecasts
Started
Aug 05, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closing
Jan 01, 2023 08:01AM UTC
Show All Possible Answers
Fewer than 20 million
3%
Between 20 million and 40 million, inclusive
36%
More than 40 million but fewer than 60 million
35%
Between 60 million and 80 million, inclusive
24%
More than 80 million but fewer than 100 million
2%
100 million or more
0%
At close of business on 14 December 2022, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 2 November 2022?
33 Forecasters • 65 Forecasts
Started
Jul 29, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closing
Dec 14, 2022 08:01AM UTC
Show All Possible Answers
Lower
0%
Same
36%
Higher
64%
How much coal will the US export in the fourth quarter of 2022, according to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA)?
14 Forecasters • 30 Forecasts
Started
Jul 29, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closing
Jan 01, 2023 08:01AM UTC
Show All Possible Answers
Less than 20,000 tons
0%
Between 20,000 tons and 22,000 tons, inclusive
42%
More than 22,000 tons but less than 24,000 tons
44%
Between 24,000 tons and 26,000 tons, inclusive
14%
More than 26,000 tons
0%
Private
Superforecasting Workshop
asks:
Before 31 March 2023, will the weekly average interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages in the US fall below 4.55%?
37%
Chance
38 Forecasters • 64 Forecasts
Started
Jul 22, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closing
Mar 30, 2023 07:01AM UTC
Between 22 July 2022 and 31 December 2022, how many members will announce their withdrawal from the Cooperation between China and Central and Eastern European Countries (China-CEEC) initiative?
23 Forecasters • 35 Forecasts
Started
Jul 22, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closing
Jan 01, 2023 08:01AM UTC
Show All Possible Answers
0
29%
1 or 2
47%
3 or 4
21%
5 or more
3%
What will be the closing value of the euro to US dollar exchange rate on 14 October 2022?
61 Forecasters • 247 Forecasts
Started
Jul 15, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closing
Oct 14, 2022 07:01AM UTC
Show All Possible Answers
Lower than 0.85
0%
Between 0.85 and 0.90, inclusive
0%
Higher than 0.90 but lower than 0.95
0%
Between 0.95 and 1.00, inclusive
28%
Higher than 1.00 but lower than 1.05
61%
Between 1.05 and 1.10, inclusive
11%
Higher than 1.10 but lower than 1.15
0%
1.15 or higher
0%
Will the spread between US high-yield corporate bonds and US Treasuries reach or exceed 8.50% before 1 December 2022?
16%
Chance
45 Forecasters • 135 Forecasts
Started
Jul 01, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closing
Dec 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC
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