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tabhuth asks:

Between 12 August 2022 and 18 February 2023, will former President Donald Trump be criminally charged with or indicted for a federal and/or state crime in the US?

58 Forecasters • 109 Forecasts
Started Aug 12, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closing Feb 18, 2023 08:01AM UTC
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Yes, a federal crime only
20%
Yes, a state crime only
11%
Yes, both a federal crime and a state crime
21%
No
48%

When will the Council of the European Union (Council) declare a "Union alert" triggering a mandatory, EU-wide reduction in natural gas consumption?

32 Forecasters • 42 Forecasts
Started Aug 12, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closing Apr 01, 2023 07:01AM UTC
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Before 1 October 2022
2%
Between 1 October 2022 and 31 December 2022
58%
Between 1 January 2023 and 31 March 2023
17%
Not before 1 April 2023
23%
Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Will an electrical blackout lasting at least one hour and affecting 60 million or more people in the US and/or Canada occur before 1 April 2023?

4%

Chance
44 Forecasters • 60 Forecasts
Started Aug 05, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closing Apr 01, 2023 07:01AM UTC
Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

What will be the total passenger throughput at airports in China in December 2022?

16 Forecasters • 25 Forecasts
Started Aug 05, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2023 08:01AM UTC
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Fewer than 20 million
3%
Between 20 million and 40 million, inclusive
36%
More than 40 million but fewer than 60 million
35%
Between 60 million and 80 million, inclusive
24%
More than 80 million but fewer than 100 million
2%
100 million or more
0%

How much coal will the US export in the fourth quarter of 2022, according to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA)?

14 Forecasters • 30 Forecasts
Started Jul 29, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2023 08:01AM UTC
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Less than 20,000 tons
0%
Between 20,000 tons and 22,000 tons, inclusive
42%
More than 22,000 tons but less than 24,000 tons
44%
Between 24,000 tons and 26,000 tons, inclusive
14%
More than 26,000 tons
0%
Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Before 31 March 2023, will the weekly average interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages in the US fall below 4.55%?

37%

Chance
38 Forecasters • 64 Forecasts
Started Jul 22, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closing Mar 30, 2023 07:01AM UTC

What will be the closing value of the euro to US dollar exchange rate on 14 October 2022?

61 Forecasters • 247 Forecasts
Started Jul 15, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closing Oct 14, 2022 07:01AM UTC
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Lower than 0.85
0%
Between 0.85 and 0.90, inclusive
0%
Higher than 0.90 but lower than 0.95
0%
Between 0.95 and 1.00, inclusive
28%
Higher than 1.00 but lower than 1.05
61%
Between 1.05 and 1.10, inclusive
11%
Higher than 1.10 but lower than 1.15
0%
1.15 or higher
0%

Will the spread between US high-yield corporate bonds and US Treasuries reach or exceed 8.50% before 1 December 2022?

16%

Chance
45 Forecasters • 135 Forecasts
Started Jul 01, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closing Dec 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC
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