Good Judgment® Open

Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

What will happen next regarding New York Governor Andrew Cuomo?

24 Forecasters • 29 Forecasts

Started Apr 16, 2021 05:00PM UTC

Closing Apr 01, 2022 07:01AM UTC

Show All Possible Answers

Cuomo will announce that he will not seek reelection as governor in 2022

59%

Cuomo will either resign as governor or announce that he will resign as governor

Cuomo will be removed from office by an impeachment trial

None of these will occur before 1 April 2022

32%

Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Before 1 January 2022, will an executive order be signed or federal legislation become law that would limit or prohibit US federal funds from being used to purchase face recognition technology?

6%

Chance

41 Forecasters • 42 Forecasts

Started Apr 09, 2021 06:00PM UTC

Closing Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC

Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Will the EU establish a moratorium or ban on the use of facial recognition systems (FRS) in public spaces by public authorities, in premises meant for education and healthcare, and/or by law enforcement in semi-public spaces before 1 January 2022?

35%

Chance

35 Forecasters • 42 Forecasts

Started Apr 09, 2021 06:00PM UTC

Closing Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC

Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Will restaurants in New York City (NYC) be permitted to offer indoor dining at 85% capacity or more before 1 July 2021?

25%

Chance

153 Forecasters • 203 Forecasts

Started Mar 26, 2021 05:00PM UTC

Closing Jul 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC

Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Will the UN, a UN agency, and/or OECD member country publicly accuse Myanmar defense forces and/or law enforcement of using a toxic chemical against protesters to cause intentional death or physical harm through its toxic properties before 15 September 2021?

36%

Chance

84 Forecasters • 124 Forecasts

Started Mar 26, 2021 05:00PM UTC

Closing Sep 15, 2021 07:01AM UTC

Private Superforecasting Workshop and erikbays ask:

What will be the 12-month percentage change in the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September 2021?

95 Forecasters • 188 Forecasts

Started Mar 17, 2021 05:00PM UTC

Closing Oct 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC

Show All Possible Answers

Lower than 1.7%

Between 1.7% and 2.1%, inclusive

13%

Higher than 2.1% but lower than 2.7%

42%

Between 2.7% and 3.1%, inclusive

32%

Higher than 3.1%

12%

Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Will the People's Republic of China's (PRC's) military expenditure as a percentage of GDP be greater in 2021 than it was in 2019?

95%

Chance

98 Forecasters • 183 Forecasts

Started Feb 26, 2021 06:00PM UTC

Closing Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC

Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Before 15 December 2021, will the U.S. either formally seek to join or formally begin renegotiations with signatories regarding the TPP or CPTPP?

8%

Chance

88 Forecasters • 250 Forecasts

Started Feb 12, 2021 06:00PM UTC

Closing Dec 15, 2021 08:01AM UTC

Private Superforecasting Workshop and erikbays ask:

Before 1 January 2022, will the U.S. officially rejoin the JCPOA?

60%

Chance

87 Forecasters • 303 Forecasts

Started Feb 12, 2021 06:00PM UTC

Closing Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC

Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Will the powers of the government of Myanmar cease to be held by the military before 5 February 2022?

2%

Chance

60 Forecasters • 114 Forecasts

Started Feb 12, 2021 06:00PM UTC

Closing Feb 05, 2022 08:01AM UTC

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What will happen next regarding New York Governor Andrew Cuomo?

Before 1 January 2022, will an executive order be signed or federal legislation become law that would limit or prohibit US federal funds from being used to purchase face recognition technology?

6%

Will the EU establish a moratorium or ban on the use of facial recognition systems (FRS) in public spaces by public authorities, in premises meant for education and healthcare, and/or by law enforcement in semi-public spaces before 1 January 2022?

35%

Will restaurants in New York City (NYC) be permitted to offer indoor dining at 85% capacity or more before 1 July 2021?

25%

Will the UN, a UN agency, and/or OECD member country publicly accuse Myanmar defense forces and/or law enforcement of using a toxic chemical against protesters to cause intentional death or physical harm through its toxic properties before 15 September 2021?

36%

What will be the 12-month percentage change in the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September 2021?

Will the People's Republic of China's (PRC's) military expenditure as a percentage of GDP be greater in 2021 than it was in 2019?

95%

Before 15 December 2021, will the U.S. either formally seek to join or formally begin renegotiations with signatories regarding the TPP or CPTPP?

8%

Before 1 January 2022, will the U.S. officially rejoin the JCPOA?

60%

Will the powers of the government of Myanmar cease to be held by the military before 5 February 2022?

2%

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Type

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6%

35%

25%

36%

95%

8%

60%

2%