Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Before 23 May 2026, will the US federal government and/or Federal Reserve publicly announce or acknowledge that it has purchased bitcoin for the purposes of either establishing or funding a bitcoin reserve?

Starts Dec 12, 2025 06:00PM UTC (1 hour from now)
Closing May 23, 2026 07:01AM UTC

The Trump administration and members of Congress have repeatedly discussed the establishment of a crypto reserve for the US, though, as of December 2025, it has thus far contemplated only saving seized or forfeited bitcoin (CNBC, Yahoo [Bezinga], White House). The acquisition of bitcoin by seizure or forfeiture will not count. The exact nature of the reserve (e.g., product of executive action, legislation) is immaterial. Currency swaps (e.g., with El Salvador, where bitcoin is legal tender) or similar instruments will not count.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.

This question is not yet active.

Answers
Yes
No
Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username