Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:
Before 23 May 2026, will the US federal government and/or Federal Reserve publicly announce or acknowledge that it has purchased bitcoin for the purposes of either establishing or funding a bitcoin reserve?
Closing May 23, 2026 07:01AM UTC
The Trump administration and members of Congress have repeatedly discussed the establishment of a crypto reserve for the US, though, as of December 2025, it has thus far contemplated only saving seized or forfeited bitcoin (CNBC, Yahoo [Bezinga], White House). The acquisition of bitcoin by seizure or forfeiture will not count. The exact nature of the reserve (e.g., product of executive action, legislation) is immaterial. Currency swaps (e.g., with El Salvador, where bitcoin is legal tender) or similar instruments will not count.
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