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Forecasting Experiment: Capital Market Assumptions (CMAs)

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1 Commenter • 1 Comment
Started Oct 18, 2019 06:48PM UTC
Closing Nov 02, 2019 05:59AM UTC
ManuPV asks:

Between 11 October 2019 and 12 June 2020, will the Hong Kong dollar close above HK$7.8510?

20%

Chance
30 Forecasters • 39 Forecasts
Started Oct 11, 2019 05:00PM UTC
Closing Jun 12, 2020 06:59AM UTC
ManuPV asks:

What will be the end-of-day closing value for the U.S. dollar against the Chinese yuan on 17 April 2020?

23 Forecasters • 30 Forecasts
Started Oct 11, 2019 05:00PM UTC
Closing Apr 17, 2020 06:59AM UTC
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Less than CNY 6.5000
1%
Between CNY 6.5000 and CNY 7.0000, inclusive
29%
Between CNY 7.0000 and CNY 7.5000
62%
Between CNY 7.5000 and CNY 8.0000, inclusive
8%
More than CNY 8.0000
0%

Between 11 September 2019 and 31 October 2019, what will be the widest closing spread of the yield on 10-year Treasurys below the yield on 2-year Treasurys?

96 Forecasters • 335 Forecasts
Started Sep 11, 2019 05:00PM UTC
Closing Nov 01, 2019 06:59AM UTC
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The 10 yr yield will not close at or lower than the 2 yr yield
97%
The 10 Yr yield closing between .01 and .10 lower than the 2 Yr yield, inclusive
3%
The 10 Yr yield closing more than .10 lower than the 2 Yr yield
0%

What will be The We Company's (WeWork's parent company) end-of-day market capitalization on the day of its initial public offering (IPO)?

114 Forecasters • 288 Forecasts
Started Sep 06, 2019 05:00PM UTC
Closing Nov 30, 2019 07:59AM UTC
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Less than $10 billion
0%
Between $10 billion and $25 billion, inclusive
0%
More than $25 billion but less than $40 billion
0%
$40 billion or more
0%
The We Company will not have an IPO before 30 November 2019
100%
Nesta asks

What will be the closing value for the pound against the euro on 1 November 2019?

763 Forecasters • 1094 Forecasts
Started Jun 07, 2019 11:00PM UTC
Closing Oct 31, 2019 06:59AM UTC
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Below 1.00
11%
Between 1.00 and 1.10, inclusive
46%
More than 1.10 but less than 1.20
31%
Between 1.20 and 1.30, inclusive
7%
More than 1.30
5%

Before 1 November 2019, will the U.S. Congress ratify the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA)?

1%

Chance
210 Forecasters • 555 Forecasts
Started May 17, 2019 04:00PM UTC
Closing Oct 31, 2019 06:59AM UTC
The Mack Institute asks

What will be the price of regular gasoline in the U.S. per gallon on 30 December 2019?

137 Forecasters • 351 Forecasts
Started Apr 26, 2019 05:00PM UTC
Closing Dec 30, 2019 07:59AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Less than $2.400
12%
Between $2.400 and $2.650, inclusive
39%
More than $2.650 but less than $2.900
33%
Between $2.900 and $3.150, inclusive
12%
More than $3.150
4%

What will be the closing value of the S&P/TSX Composite Index on 31 October 2019?

124 Forecasters • 486 Forecasts
Started Apr 19, 2019 05:00PM UTC
Closing Oct 31, 2019 06:59AM UTC
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Less than 15,000.00
1%
Between 15,000.00 and 16,000.00, inclusive
16%
More than 16,000.00 but less than 17,000.00
76%
Between 17,000.00 and 18,000.00, inclusive
6%
More than 18,000.00
1%

What will be the end-of-day closing value for the U.S. dollar against the Mexican peso on 29 November 2019?

142 Forecasters • 493 Forecasts
Started Feb 08, 2019 06:00PM UTC
Closing Nov 29, 2019 07:59AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Less than Mex$17.5000
3%
Between Mex$17.5000 and Mex$18.5000, inclusive
3%
More than Mex$18.5000 but less than Mex$19.5000
42%
Between Mex$19.5000 and Mex$20.5000, inclusive
46%
More than Mex$20.5000
6%