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Will Prayut Chan-o-cha cease to be the prime minister of Thailand before 23 April 2021?

0%

Chance
83 Forecasters • 349 Forecasts
Started Oct 23, 2020 05:00PM UTC
Closing Apr 23, 2021 07:01AM UTC

Which film will win the 2020 Oscar® for Directing?

62 Forecasters • 132 Forecasts
Started Mar 17, 2021 05:00PM UTC
Closing Apr 25, 2021 07:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Another Round (Thomas Vinterberg)
0%
Mank (David Fincher)
2%
Minari (Lee Isaac Chung)
3%
Nomadland (Chloé Zhao)
94%
Promising Young Woman (Emerald Fennell)
1%
A tie or other outcome
0%

Which film will win the 2021 Oscar® for Best Motion Picture of the Year?

94 Forecasters • 175 Forecasts
Started Mar 17, 2021 05:00PM UTC
Closing Apr 25, 2021 07:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
The Father
0%
Judas and the Black Messiah
1%
Mank
0%
Minari
5%
Nomadland
93%
Promising Young Woman
1%
Sound of Metal
0%
The Trial of the Chicago 7
0%
A tie or other outcome
0%

How many people in the US will have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine as of 30 April 2021, according to the CDC?

56 Forecasters • 151 Forecasts
Started Apr 07, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closing Apr 30, 2021 07:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Fewer than 130,000,000
0%
Between 130,000,000 and 140,000,000, inclusive
0%
More than 140,000,000 but fewer than 150,000,000
4%
Between 150,000,000 and 160,000,000, inclusive
72%
More than 160,000,000 but fewer than 170,000,000
24%
Between 170,000,000 and 180,000,000, inclusive
0%
More than 180,000,000
0%

How many people will have been fully vaccinated against COVID-19 in the US as of 30 April 2021, according to the CDC?

49 Forecasters • 97 Forecasts
Started Apr 07, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closing Apr 30, 2021 07:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Fewer than 85,000,000
0%
Between 85,000,000 and 95,000,000, inclusive
0%
More than 95,000,000 but fewer than 105,000,000
12%
Between 105,000,000 and 115,000,000, inclusive
78%
More than 115,000,000 but fewer than 125,000,000
10%
Between 125,000,000 and 135,000,000, inclusive
0%
More than 135,000,000
0%

How many countries will have 100,000 or more deaths attributed to COVID-19 as of 30 April 2021?

258 Forecasters • 1608 Forecasts
Started Oct 23, 2020 05:00PM UTC
Closing Apr 30, 2021 07:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
3
0%
4
0%
5 or 6
0%
7 or 8
100%
9 or more
0%
Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Will any 2020 California election results be altered by a cyberattack against a voting system?

0%

Chance
171 Forecasters • 376 Forecasts
Started Sep 11, 2020 05:00PM UTC
Closing May 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC

Before 1 May 2021, will Mahmoud Abbas cease to be president of the Palestinian Authority?

0%

Chance
76 Forecasters • 279 Forecasts
Started Nov 06, 2020 06:00PM UTC
Closing May 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC

How many US adult and pediatric hospital admissions with confirmed COVID-19 cases will there be for the week ending 1 May 2021?

33 Forecasters • 58 Forecasts
Started Apr 07, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closing May 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Fewer than 15,000
0%
Between 15,000 and 25,000, inclusive
0%
More than 25,000 but fewer than 35,000
22%
Between 35,000 and 45,000, inclusive
64%
More than 45,000 but fewer than 55,000
14%
Between 55,000 and 65,000, inclusive
0%
More than 65,000 but fewer than 75,000
0%
Between 75,000 and 85,000, inclusive
0%
More than 85,000
0%
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