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Before 1 January 2022, will Amazon announce that it will spin off Amazon Web Services (AWS)?

1%

Chance
733 Forecasters • 1237 Forecasts
Started Oct 30, 2020 05:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC
The Mercator Institute for China Studies (MERICS) and WBHumanoid ask:

Before 1 January 2022, will the United States Olympic Committee announce that it is boycotting the 2022 Winter Olympics?

1%

Chance
385 Forecasters • 1219 Forecasts
Started Aug 28, 2020 05:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC
The Mercator Institute for China Studies (MERICS) asks:

Will the People's Republic of China and the EU sign a Comprehensive Agreement on Investment before 1 January 2022?

257 Forecasters • 1102 Forecasts
Started Dec 18, 2020 07:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Yes, and the EU will ratify it before 1 January 2022
0%
Yes, and the EU will not ratify it before 1 January 2022
5%
No
95%

Before 1 January 2022, will the U.S. Senate expand the scope of matters for which a filibuster cannot be used?

2%

Chance
187 Forecasters • 1056 Forecasts
Started Jul 31, 2020 05:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC
Private Superforecasting Workshop and erikbays ask:

Before 1 January 2022, will the U.S. officially rejoin the JCPOA?

5%

Chance
161 Forecasters • 886 Forecasts
Started Feb 12, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC
Tim Harford asks:

What will Uber's end-of-day market capitalization be on 31 December 2021?

139 Forecasters • 877 Forecasts
Started Jan 15, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closing Dec 31, 2021 08:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Less than $75 billion
26%
Between $75 billion and $100 billion, inclusive
61%
More than $100 billion but less than $125 billion
13%
Between $125 billion and $150 billion, inclusive
0%
More than $150 billion
0%
Tim Harford asks:

When will the 7-day average of new COVID-19 cases in the UK next fall below 15,000?

134 Forecasters • 836 Forecasts
Started Jul 21, 2021 02:27PM UTC
Closing Dec 18, 2021 08:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Before 11 September 2021
0%
Between 11 September 2021 and 29 October 2021
0%
Between 30 October 2021 and 17 December 2021
9%
Not before 18 December 2021
91%
Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Will there be an act of domestic terrorism in the United States resulting in 10 or more fatalities before 1 January 2022?

9%

Chance
192 Forecasters • 801 Forecasts
Started Feb 10, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC

What will be the closing yield for the 30-year U.S. Treasury on 31 December 2021?

92 Forecasters • 768 Forecasts
Started Dec 31, 2020 06:00PM UTC
Closing Dec 31, 2021 08:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Less than 1.500
0%
Between 1.500 and 2.000, inclusive
36%
More than 2.000 but less than 2.500
61%
Between 2.500 and 3.000, inclusive
3%
More than 3.000
0%
jayb asks:

How many total major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher) will occur in the Atlantic Ocean in the 2021 hurricane season, according to the National Hurricane Center?

111 Forecasters • 752 Forecasts
Started Jun 04, 2021 05:00PM UTC
Closing Dec 01, 2021 08:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
2 or fewer
0%
3
0%
4
67%
5
30%
6 or more
3%
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