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024_andrew and The Economist ask:

Before 18 September 2021, will Boris Johnson cease to be prime minister of the United Kingdom?

1%

Chance
548 Forecasters • 1694 Forecasts
Started Sep 18, 2020 05:00PM UTC
Closing Sep 18, 2021 07:01AM UTC
Adam Grant asks:

Before 15 August 2021, will Alexei Navalny be convicted on any fraud charges related to his activities with his non-profit organizations?

3%

Chance
492 Forecasters • 1215 Forecasts
Started Feb 24, 2021 09:30PM UTC
Closing Aug 15, 2021 07:01AM UTC
Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Will there be a complex coordinated terrorist attack (CCTA) in the United States before 1 September 2021?

2%

Chance
198 Forecasters • 1053 Forecasts
Started Sep 11, 2020 05:00PM UTC
Closing Sep 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC
The Mercator Institute for China Studies (MERICS) and WBHumanoid ask:

Before 1 January 2022, will the United States Olympic Committee announce that it is boycotting the 2022 Winter Olympics?

3%

Chance
293 Forecasters • 1005 Forecasts
Started Aug 28, 2020 05:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC

Before 1 January 2022, will the U.S. Senate expand the scope of matters for which a filibuster cannot be used?

3%

Chance
170 Forecasters • 903 Forecasts
Started Jul 31, 2020 05:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC
The Mercator Institute for China Studies (MERICS) asks:

Will the People's Republic of China and the EU sign a Comprehensive Agreement on Investment before 1 January 2022?

234 Forecasters • 883 Forecasts
Started Dec 18, 2020 07:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Yes, and the EU will ratify it before 1 January 2022
0%
Yes, and the EU will not ratify it before 1 January 2022
31%
No
69%

Before 1 January 2022, will Amazon announce that it will spin off Amazon Web Services (AWS)?

2%

Chance
501 Forecasters • 845 Forecasts
Started Oct 30, 2020 05:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC
The Mercator Institute for China Studies (MERICS) asks:

Will the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and/or the EU's European Medicines Agency (EMA) approve a COVID-19 vaccine from Chinese companies Sinovac or Sinopharm before 1 September 2021?

260 Forecasters • 755 Forecasts
Started Dec 18, 2020 07:00PM UTC
Closing Sep 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Yes, only by the FDA
0%
Yes, only by the EMA
0%
Yes, by both the FDA and the EMA
0%
No
100%

What will be the closing yield for the 10-year US Treasury on 16 September 2021?

88 Forecasters • 678 Forecasts
Started Feb 19, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closing Sep 16, 2021 07:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Less than 1.000
10%
Between 1.000 and 1.500, inclusive
74%
More than 1.500 but less than 2.000
16%
Between 2.000 and 2.500, inclusive
0%
More than 2.500
0%
The Economist asks:

When will a new Dutch government be sworn in after the 2021 general election?

112 Forecasters • 673 Forecasts
Started Jan 15, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closing Sep 18, 2021 07:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Between 18 March 2021 and 17 June 2021
0%
Between 18 June 2021 and 17 September 2021
40%
Not before 18 September 2021
60%
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