The Economist asks:

Will China, Russia, and/or the US detonate a nuclear device in their respective territories before 1 October 2024?

Started Nov 27, 2023 06:30PM UTC
Closing Oct 01, 2024 07:01AM UTC

As global tensions rise among nuclear powers, observers are concerned about the prospect of renewed nuclear weapons testing and a new arms race (Economist, AP, Politico, Arms Control Association). For the purposes of this question, a "nuclear device" is one that is designed to produce a nuclear explosion utilizing the fission and/or fusion of nuclear fuel (e.g., Uranium-235, lithium deuteride). A radiological device (aka "dirty bomb") would not count (Nuclear Regulatory Commission). Whether China, Russia, and/or the US has detonated a nuclear device in their respective territories will be determined using credible open source reporting. A detonation by China, Russia, or the US must occur within that country's internationally recognized boundaries (including territorial waters and airspace) to count.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.

Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours Change in last week Change in last month
Yes 9.77% +0.28% 0% -1.13%
No 90.23% -0.28% 0% +1.13%

Sign up or sign in to forecast!

Sign Up Sign In
Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username