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Before 1 September 2021, will Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan sign an agreement governing the filling of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) reservoir?

12%

Chance
25 Forecasters • 34 Forecasts
Started Oct 16, 2020 05:00PM UTC
Closing Sep 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC

Between 16 October 2020 and 31 December 2021, how many successful flight tests of the Common Hypersonic Glide Body (C-HGB) will the United States conduct?

23 Forecasters • 34 Forecasts
Started Oct 16, 2020 05:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC
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0
0%
1
0%
2
16%
3
65%
4 or more
19%

When will Lebanon's parliament give a vote of confidence to a new government?

42 Forecasters • 89 Forecasts
Started Oct 02, 2020 05:00PM UTC
Closing Apr 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Before 1 December 2020
58%
Between 1 December 2020 and 31 January 2021
33%
Between 1 February 2021 and 31 March 2021
8%
Not before 1 April 2021
1%
Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Before 1 March 2021, will there be a lethal confrontation at sea between the forces of India and the People's Republic of China?

2%

Chance
135 Forecasters • 196 Forecasts
Started Sep 25, 2020 05:00PM UTC
Closing Mar 01, 2021 08:01AM UTC
Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Will the UN Security Council or UN General Assembly vote on a resolution concerning outer space before 1 May 2021?

69 Forecasters • 161 Forecasts
Started Sep 25, 2020 05:00PM UTC
Closing May 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC
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Yes, and China will vote for it
78%
Yes, and China will abstain or be absent from voting
6%
Yes, and China will vote against it
5%
No
11%
Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Between 15 September 2020 and 30 November 2020, will a country cease to formally recognize Taiwan?

1%

Chance
141 Forecasters • 328 Forecasts
Started Sep 15, 2020 05:00PM UTC
Closing Dec 01, 2020 08:01AM UTC
Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Will any 2020 California election results be altered by a cyberattack against a voting system?

2%

Chance
108 Forecasters • 158 Forecasts
Started Sep 11, 2020 05:00PM UTC
Closing May 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC
Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Will there be a complex coordinated terrorist attack (CCTA) in the United States before 1 September 2021?

25%

Chance
100 Forecasters • 186 Forecasts
Started Sep 11, 2020 05:00PM UTC
Closing Sep 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC

How many Arab League member states other than Palestine will diplomatically recognize the State of Israel as of 28 August 2021?

74 Forecasters • 301 Forecasts
Started Aug 28, 2020 05:00PM UTC
Closing Aug 28, 2021 07:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
2 or fewer
0%
3
0%
4
0%
5
33%
6 or more
67%