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The
Mercator Institute for China Studies (MERICS)
asks:
Between 16 April 2021 and 31 December 2021, will ASML obtain an export license from the Netherlands to export an Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) lithography system to the People's Republic of China?
0%
Chance
12 Forecasters • 13 Forecasts
Started
Apr 16, 2021 05:00PM UTC
Closing
Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC
Private
Superforecasting Workshop
asks:
Will the UN, a UN agency, and/or OECD member country publicly accuse Myanmar defense forces and/or law enforcement of using a toxic chemical against protesters to cause intentional death or physical harm through its toxic properties before 15 September 2021?
36%
Chance
84 Forecasters • 124 Forecasts
Started
Mar 26, 2021 05:00PM UTC
Closing
Sep 15, 2021 07:01AM UTC
What will be the FAO Food Price Index for December 2021?
48 Forecasters • 82 Forecasts
Started
Mar 19, 2021 05:00PM UTC
Closing
Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC
Show All Possible Answers
Less than 100.0
2%
Between 100.0 and 110.0, inclusive
13%
More than 110.0 but less than 120.0
27%
Between 120.0 and 130.0, inclusive
47%
More than 130.0
11%
Before 1 January 2022, will North Korea detonate a nuclear device and/or launch an ICBM with an estimated range of at least 10,000km?
124 Forecasters • 232 Forecasts
Started
Mar 05, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closing
Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC
Show All Possible Answers
Yes, only detonate a nuclear device
6%
Yes, only launch an ICBM
35%
Yes, both
2%
No
57%
Private
Superforecasting Workshop
asks:
Will the People's Republic of China's (PRC's) military expenditure as a percentage of GDP be greater in 2021 than it was in 2019?
95%
Chance
98 Forecasters • 183 Forecasts
Started
Feb 26, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closing
Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC
Private
Superforecasting Workshop
and
erikbays
ask:
Before 1 January 2022, will the U.S. officially rejoin the JCPOA?
60%
Chance
87 Forecasters • 303 Forecasts
Started
Feb 12, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closing
Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC
Private
Superforecasting Workshop
asks:
Will the powers of the government of Myanmar cease to be held by the military before 5 February 2022?
2%
Chance
60 Forecasters • 114 Forecasts
Started
Feb 12, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closing
Feb 05, 2022 08:01AM UTC
Private
Superforecasting Workshop
asks:
Will there be an act of domestic terrorism in the United States resulting in 10 or more fatalities before 1 January 2022?
38%
Chance
136 Forecasters • 326 Forecasts
Started
Feb 10, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closing
Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC
Will Saudi Arabia diplomatically recognize the State of Israel in 2021?
3%
Chance
96 Forecasters • 201 Forecasts
Started
Feb 05, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closing
Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC
Private
Superforecasting Workshop
asks:
Between 5 February 2021 and 31 October 2021, will anti-government protests in Russia result in five or more fatalities?
8%
Chance
96 Forecasters • 193 Forecasts
Started
Feb 05, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closing
Nov 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC
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