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The Early Warning Project asks

Between 1 October 2018 and 30 September 2019, will an armed group from Yemen engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Yemen?

12%

Chance
30 Forecasters • 48 Forecasts
Started Sep 28, 2018 11:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2019 07:59AM UTC
The Early Warning Project asks

Between 1 October 2018 and 30 September 2019, will an armed group from Turkey engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Turkey?

4%

Chance
32 Forecasters • 46 Forecasts
Started Sep 28, 2018 11:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2019 07:59AM UTC
The Early Warning Project asks

Between 1 October 2018 and 30 September 2019, will an armed group from Burundi engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Burundi?

3%

Chance
14 Forecasters • 24 Forecasts
Started Sep 28, 2018 11:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2019 07:59AM UTC
The Early Warning Project asks

Between 1 October 2018 and 30 September 2019, will an armed group from Ethiopia engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Ethiopia?

2%

Chance
13 Forecasters • 23 Forecasts
Started Sep 28, 2018 11:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2019 07:59AM UTC
The Early Warning Project asks

Between 1 October 2018 and 30 September 2019, will an armed group from Sudan engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Sudan?

8%

Chance
15 Forecasters • 25 Forecasts
Started Sep 28, 2018 11:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2019 07:59AM UTC
The Early Warning Project asks

Between 1 October 2018 and 30 September 2019, will an armed group from the Democratic Republic of Congo engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in the Democratic Republic of Congo?

5%

Chance
16 Forecasters • 27 Forecasts
Started Sep 28, 2018 11:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2019 07:59AM UTC
The Early Warning Project asks

Between 1 October 2018 and 30 September 2019, will an armed group from Myanmar engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Myanmar?

2%

Chance
13 Forecasters • 25 Forecasts
Started Sep 28, 2018 11:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2019 07:59AM UTC
The Early Warning Project asks

Between 1 October 2018 and 30 September 2019, will an armed group from Pakistan engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Pakistan?

4%

Chance
17 Forecasters • 26 Forecasts
Started Sep 28, 2018 11:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2019 07:59AM UTC
The Early Warning Project asks

Between 1 October 2018 and 30 September 2019, will an armed group from Mali engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Mali?

0%

Chance
15 Forecasters • 23 Forecasts
Started Sep 28, 2018 11:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2019 07:59AM UTC
The Early Warning Project asks

Between 1 October 2018 and 30 September 2019, will an armed group from South Sudan engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in South Sudan?

4%

Chance
14 Forecasters • 24 Forecasts
Started Sep 28, 2018 11:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2019 07:59AM UTC