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Bernard Zimmermann asks:

Before 1 January 2023, will the US officially rejoin the JCPOA?

16%

Chance
41 Forecasters • 49 Forecasts
Started Jan 14, 2022 06:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2023 08:01AM UTC

Before 1 January 2023, will North Korea launch an ICBM with an estimated range of at least 10,000 km?

30%

Chance
41 Forecasters • 53 Forecasts
Started Jan 14, 2022 06:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2023 08:01AM UTC

Will Kassym-Jomart Tokayev either flee Kazakhstan or cease to be its president before 7 July 2022?

8%

Chance
120 Forecasters • 180 Forecasts
Started Jan 07, 2022 06:00PM UTC
Closing Jul 07, 2022 07:01AM UTC
The Economist asks:

Will the powers of the government of Myanmar cease to be held by the military before 1 October 2022?

5%

Chance
106 Forecasters • 123 Forecasts
Started Jan 07, 2022 06:00PM UTC
Closing Oct 01, 2022 07:01AM UTC
The Economist asks:

What will be the FAO Food Price Index for June 2022?

93 Forecasters • 135 Forecasts
Started Jan 07, 2022 06:00PM UTC
Closing Jul 01, 2022 07:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Less than 120.0
1%
Between 120.0 and 130.0, inclusive
24%
More than 130.0 but less than 140.0
46%
Between 140.0 and 150.0, inclusive
24%
More than 150.0
5%
Nick-Nolan asks:

Between 30 December 2021 and 31 May 2022, will NATO and/or a NATO member state accuse Russian national military forces of invading Ukraine?

161 Forecasters • 352 Forecasts
Started Dec 30, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closing Jun 01, 2022 07:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Yes, invading the Donetsk and/or Luhansk Oblasts only
16%
Yes, invading Ukrainian territory outside of Donetsk and/or Luhansk Oblasts only
3%
Yes, invading the Donetsk and/or Luhansk Oblasts as well as other Ukrainian territory
16%
No
65%
The Economist asks:

Which political party will win the most seats in the next Northern Ireland Assembly election?

109 Forecasters • 139 Forecasts
Started Dec 03, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closing May 05, 2022 07:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Democratic Unionist Party
29%
Sinn Féin
71%
Another party
0%
Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Before 1 January 2023, will Taiwan publicly accuse the People's Republic of China of landing military personnel on the Pratas Islands without authorization?

11%

Chance
79 Forecasters • 108 Forecasts
Started Nov 19, 2021 10:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2023 08:01AM UTC
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