Good Judgment® Open

Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Will Abiy Ahmed cease to be the prime minister of Ethiopia by way of extraconstitutional events before 1 January 2022?

6%

Chance

13 Forecasters • 14 Forecasts

Started Jul 30, 2021 05:00PM UTC

Closing Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC

Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Before 1 January 2023, will the Afghan government and the Afghan Taliban sign an agreement that includes provisions for the establishment and/or recognition of a national government?

1%

Chance

18 Forecasters • 20 Forecasts

Started Jul 30, 2021 05:00PM UTC

Closing Jan 01, 2023 08:01AM UTC

Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Before 2 October 2021, will the UN General Assembly recognize delegates from the National Unity Government (NUG) as representing Myanmar for the 76th General Assembly session?

1%

Chance

15 Forecasters • 20 Forecasts

Started Jul 30, 2021 05:00PM UTC

Closing Oct 02, 2021 07:01AM UTC

Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces of Egypt and Ethiopia before 1 January 2022?

3%

Chance

72 Forecasters • 78 Forecasts

Started Jul 23, 2021 05:00PM UTC

Closing Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC

Will Ashraf Ghani either flee Afghanistan or cease to be its president before 1 January 2022?

49%

Chance

66 Forecasters • 112 Forecasts

Started Jul 16, 2021 05:00PM UTC

Closing Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC

Will the US fully evacuate or lose control of its embassy in Kabul, Afghanistan, before 1 December 2021?

8%

Chance

64 Forecasters • 93 Forecasts

Started Jul 16, 2021 05:00PM UTC

Closing Dec 01, 2021 08:01AM UTC

Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Will a member of the forces from an African country other than Mozambique be killed in a lethal confrontation in Cabo Delgado before 1 April 2022?

92%

Chance

46 Forecasters • 108 Forecasts

Started Jun 30, 2021 09:00PM UTC

Closing Apr 01, 2022 07:01AM UTC

Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

What will be the global price of wheat in November 2021, according to the IMF?

47 Forecasters • 142 Forecasts

Started Jun 17, 2021 10:00PM UTC

Closing Dec 01, 2021 08:01AM UTC

Show All Possible Answers

Lower than $220.00/MT

Between $220.00/MT and $260.00/MT, inclusive

41%

Higher than $260.00/MT but lower than $300.00/MT

37%

Between $300.00/MT and $340.00/MT, inclusive

13%

Higher than $340.00/MT

The Mercator Institute for China Studies (MERICS) asks:

Between 30 April 2021 and 31 December 2021, how many times will the Council of the European Union impose new restrictive measures (sanctions) on China over human rights violations and abuses in Xinjiang?

77 Forecasters • 200 Forecasts

Started Apr 30, 2021 05:00PM UTC

Closing Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC

Show All Possible Answers

76%

23%

3 or more

The Mercator Institute for China Studies (MERICS) asks:

Before 1 January 2022, will the People's Liberation Army (PLA) and/or People's Armed Police (PAP) engage in a confrontation with Hong Kongers?

4%

Chance

97 Forecasters • 169 Forecasts

Started Apr 23, 2021 05:00PM UTC

Closing Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC

Status

Type

Sort By

Filter By

Challenges

Select All

Will Abiy Ahmed cease to be the prime minister of Ethiopia by way of extraconstitutional events before 1 January 2022?

6%

Before 1 January 2023, will the Afghan government and the Afghan Taliban sign an agreement that includes provisions for the establishment and/or recognition of a national government?

1%

Before 2 October 2021, will the UN General Assembly recognize delegates from the National Unity Government (NUG) as representing Myanmar for the 76th General Assembly session?

1%

Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces of Egypt and Ethiopia before 1 January 2022?

3%

Will Ashraf Ghani either flee Afghanistan or cease to be its president before 1 January 2022?

49%

Will the US fully evacuate or lose control of its embassy in Kabul, Afghanistan, before 1 December 2021?

8%

Will a member of the forces from an African country other than Mozambique be killed in a lethal confrontation in Cabo Delgado before 1 April 2022?

92%

What will be the global price of wheat in November 2021, according to the IMF?

Between 30 April 2021 and 31 December 2021, how many times will the Council of the European Union impose new restrictive measures (sanctions) on China over human rights violations and abuses in Xinjiang?

Before 1 January 2022, will the People's Liberation Army (PLA) and/or People's Armed Police (PAP) engage in a confrontation with Hong Kongers?

4%

Status

Type

Sort By

Filter By

Challenges

Tags

6%

1%

1%

3%

49%

8%

92%

4%