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Will the New START treaty be extended by Russia and the U.S. before 6 February 2021?

97%

Chance
82 Forecasters • 132 Forecasts
Started Jan 08, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closing Feb 06, 2021 08:01AM UTC
Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Before 15 March 2021, will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces of Iran and the United States either in Iran or at sea?

2%

Chance
117 Forecasters • 153 Forecasts
Started Jan 06, 2021 08:30PM UTC
Closing Mar 15, 2021 07:01AM UTC
The Economist asks:

On 12 May 2021, will Ethiopia's Tigray region be under a federally-imposed state of emergency?

85%

Chance
154 Forecasters • 224 Forecasts
Started Nov 13, 2020 06:00PM UTC
Closing May 12, 2021 07:01AM UTC
Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Between 9 November 2020 and 28 February 2021, will a country cease to formally recognize Taiwan?

3%

Chance
209 Forecasters • 390 Forecasts
Started Nov 09, 2020 11:00PM UTC
Closing Mar 01, 2021 08:01AM UTC

Before 1 September 2021, will Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan sign an agreement governing the filling of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) reservoir?

4%

Chance
57 Forecasters • 157 Forecasts
Started Oct 16, 2020 05:00PM UTC
Closing Sep 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC

Between 16 October 2020 and 31 December 2021, how many successful flight tests of the Common Hypersonic Glide Body (C-HGB) will the United States conduct?

40 Forecasters • 125 Forecasts
Started Oct 16, 2020 05:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
0
0%
1
0%
2
7%
3
91%
4 or more
2%

When will Lebanon's parliament give a vote of confidence to a new government?

55 Forecasters • 300 Forecasts
Started Oct 02, 2020 05:00PM UTC
Closing Apr 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Before 1 December 2020
0%
Between 1 December 2020 and 31 January 2021
40%
Between 1 February 2021 and 31 March 2021
47%
Not before 1 April 2021
13%
Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Before 1 March 2021, will there be a lethal confrontation at sea between the forces of India and the People's Republic of China?

0%

Chance
180 Forecasters • 360 Forecasts
Started Sep 25, 2020 05:00PM UTC
Closing Mar 01, 2021 08:01AM UTC
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