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The Early Warning Project asks

Between 1 July 2018 and 30 June 2019, will an armed group from Myanmar engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Myanmar?

5%

Chance
57 Forecasters • 103 Forecasts
Started Jun 27, 2018 05:00PM UTC
Closing Oct 01, 2018 06:59AM UTC
The Early Warning Project asks

Between 1 July 2018 and 30 June 2019, will an armed group from South Sudan engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in South Sudan?

15%

Chance
33 Forecasters • 73 Forecasts
Started Jun 27, 2018 05:00PM UTC
Closing Oct 01, 2018 06:59AM UTC
The Early Warning Project asks

Between 1 July 2018 and 30 June 2019, will an armed group from Iraq engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Iraq?

8%

Chance
35 Forecasters • 68 Forecasts
Started Jun 27, 2018 05:00PM UTC
Closing Oct 01, 2018 06:59AM UTC
The Early Warning Project asks

Between 1 July 2018 and 30 June 2019, will an armed group from the Philippines engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in the Philippines?

4%

Chance
45 Forecasters • 71 Forecasts
Started Jun 27, 2018 05:00PM UTC
Closing Oct 01, 2018 06:59AM UTC
The Early Warning Project asks

Between 1 July 2018 and 30 June 2019, will an armed group from Zimbabwe engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Zimbabwe?

1%

Chance
32 Forecasters • 59 Forecasts
Started Jun 27, 2018 05:00PM UTC
Closing Oct 01, 2018 06:59AM UTC
The Early Warning Project asks

Between 1 July 2018 and 30 June 2019, will an armed group from Bangladesh engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Bangladesh?

5%

Chance
32 Forecasters • 61 Forecasts
Started Jun 27, 2018 05:00PM UTC
Closing Oct 01, 2018 06:59AM UTC
The Early Warning Project asks

Between 1 July 2018 and 30 June 2019, will an armed group from Nigeria engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Nigeria?

30%

Chance
34 Forecasters • 61 Forecasts
Started Jun 27, 2018 05:00PM UTC
Closing Oct 01, 2018 06:59AM UTC
The Early Warning Project asks

Between 1 July 2018 and 30 June 2019, will an armed group from Turkey engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Turkey?

1%

Chance
43 Forecasters • 66 Forecasts
Started Jun 27, 2018 05:00PM UTC
Closing Oct 01, 2018 06:59AM UTC
The Early Warning Project asks

Between 1 July 2018 and 30 June 2019, will an armed group from Ethiopia engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Ethiopia?

1%

Chance
31 Forecasters • 51 Forecasts
Started Jun 27, 2018 05:00PM UTC
Closing Oct 01, 2018 06:59AM UTC
The Early Warning Project asks

Between 1 July 2018 and 30 June 2019, will an armed group from the Democratic Republic of Congo engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in the Democratic Republic of Congo?

8%

Chance
28 Forecasters • 52 Forecasts
Started Jun 27, 2018 05:00PM UTC
Closing Oct 01, 2018 06:59AM UTC