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Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test before 1 January 2020?

10%

Chance
33 Forecasters • 40 Forecasts
Started Dec 07, 2018 06:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2020 07:59AM UTC

Will North Korea launch an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) before 1 January 2020?

14%

Chance
33 Forecasters • 38 Forecasts
Started Dec 07, 2018 06:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2020 07:59AM UTC

Before 1 March 2019, will the U.S. impose Global Magnitsky Sanctions on any member of Saudi Arabia's Council of Ministers for the death of journalist Jamal Khashoggi? 

10%

Chance
89 Forecasters • 152 Forecasts
Started Oct 26, 2018 05:00PM UTC
Closing Mar 01, 2019 07:59AM UTC
The Early Warning Project asks

Between 1 October 2018 and 30 September 2019, will an armed group from Yemen engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Yemen?

14%

Chance
55 Forecasters • 107 Forecasts
Started Sep 28, 2018 11:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2019 07:59AM UTC
The Early Warning Project asks

Between 1 October 2018 and 30 September 2019, will an armed group from Turkey engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Turkey?

1%

Chance
54 Forecasters • 93 Forecasts
Started Sep 28, 2018 11:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2019 07:59AM UTC
The Early Warning Project asks

Between 1 October 2018 and 30 September 2019, will an armed group from Burundi engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Burundi?

8%

Chance
21 Forecasters • 48 Forecasts
Started Sep 28, 2018 11:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2019 07:59AM UTC
The Early Warning Project asks

Between 1 October 2018 and 30 September 2019, will an armed group from Ethiopia engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Ethiopia?

10%

Chance
27 Forecasters • 57 Forecasts
Started Sep 28, 2018 11:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2019 07:59AM UTC
The Early Warning Project asks

Between 1 October 2018 and 30 September 2019, will an armed group from Sudan engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Sudan?

8%

Chance
25 Forecasters • 54 Forecasts
Started Sep 28, 2018 11:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2019 07:59AM UTC
The Early Warning Project asks

Between 1 October 2018 and 30 September 2019, will an armed group from the Democratic Republic of Congo engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in the Democratic Republic of Congo?

25%

Chance
27 Forecasters • 66 Forecasts
Started Sep 28, 2018 11:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2019 07:59AM UTC