How many total refugees and migrants will arrive in Europe from around the Mediterranean Sea in 2026?
Started
Jan 09, 2026 06:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2027 08:01AM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2027 08:01AM UTC
Challenges
The question will be suspended on 31 December 2026 and the outcome determined using data as reported by the UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) for "Total arrivals" on its Mediterranean Situation page (UNHCR - Mediterranean Situation). As of the launch of this question, UNHCR reported a total of 154,332 arrivals in Europe in 2025 (sea arrivals to Italy and Malta, and both sea and land arrivals to Cyprus, Greece, and Spain (including the Canary Islands)).
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| Possible Answer | Crowd Forecast | Change in last 24 hours |
|---|---|---|
| Fewer than 40,000 | 18.00% | -82.00% |
| At least 40,000, but fewer than 80,000 | 19.00% | +19.00% |
| At least 80,000, but fewer than 120,000 | 26.00% | +26.00% |
| At least 120,000, but fewer than 160,000 | 27.00% | +27.00% |
| At least 160,000, but fewer than 200,000 | 6.00% | +6.00% |
| At least 200,000, but fewer than 280,000 | 2.00% | +2.00% |
| At least 280,000, but fewer than 360,000 | 1.00% | +1.00% |
| 360,000 or more | 1.00% | +1.00% |