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What book will win the 2019 National Book Award for fiction?

8 Forecasters • 9 Forecasts
Started Oct 15, 2019 03:00PM UTC
Closing Nov 20, 2019 07:59AM UTC
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Trust Exercise by Susan Choi
23%
Sabrina & Corina: Stories by Kali Fajardo-Anstine
18%
Black Leopard, Red Wolf by Marlon James
15%
The Other Americans by Laila Lalami
21%
Disappearing Earth by Julia Phillips
23%

What book will win the 2019 National Book Award for nonfiction?

6 Forecasters • 7 Forecasts
Started Oct 15, 2019 03:00PM UTC
Closing Nov 20, 2019 07:59AM UTC
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The Yellow House by Sarah M. Broom
22%
Thick: And Other Essays by Tressie McMillan Cottom
16%
What You Have Heard is True: A Memoir of Witness and Resistance by Carolyn Forché
22%
The Heartbeat of Wounded Knee: Native America from 1890 to the Present by David Treuer
20%
Solitary by Albert Woodfox with Leslie George
20%
The Mack Institute asks

Before 1 January 2020, will a firm or paid backup driver operating a self-driving vehicle face criminal charges in relation to an accident involving a self-driving vehicle in the U.S.?

201 Forecasters • 338 Forecasts
Started Apr 26, 2019 05:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2020 07:59AM UTC
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Yes, a firm
4%
Yes, a paid backup driver
6%
Yes, both
3%
No
87%
Nesta asks

Before 1 January 2020, will either SpaceX or Boeing launch its first crewed space mission?

1751 Forecasters • 2194 Forecasts
Started Feb 22, 2019 06:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2020 07:59AM UTC
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No
90%
Yes, only SpaceX
7%
Yes, only Boeing
2%
Yes, both SpaceX and Boeing
1%
  Fareed Zakaria GPS asks

Will Ruth Bader Ginsburg cease to be an Associate Justice of the U.S. Supreme Court before 1 January 2020?

15%

Chance
2736 Forecasters • 3776 Forecasts
Started Jan 04, 2019 10:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2020 07:59AM UTC