What will be the "natural growth rate" of the population of China in 2026?
Closing Jan 01, 2027 08:01AM UTC
China reported a negative natural growth rate for the fourth straight year in 2025 as the country deals with the demographic consequences of, among other things, its now-scrapped One-Child Policy (AP, National Bureau of Statistics of China - 19 January 2026). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2026 and the outcome determined using natural growth rate (i.e., the birth rate minus the death rate over a given period) data as published by the Chinese government for 2026, expected in early 2027. Because your browser may not recognize the security certificate used by China's National Bureau of Statistics website, we have included the birth rate, death rate, and natural growth rate for the past 12 years:
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| Possible Answer | Crowd Forecast | Change in last 24 hours |
|---|---|---|
| Lower than -3.75 | 5.40% | -9.60% |
| At least -3.75, but lower than -3.00 | 26.90% | -8.10% |
| At least -3.00, but lower than -2.25 | 31.40% | +1.40% |
| At least -2.25, but lower than -1.50 | 24.10% | +9.10% |
| At least -1.50, but lower than -0.75 | 9.80% | +5.80% |
| At least -0.75, but lower than 0.00 | 1.40% | +0.40% |
| At least 0.00, but lower than 0.75 | 0.50% | +0.50% |
| 0.75 or higher | 0.50% | +0.50% |