How many confirmed cases of measles will be reported in Canada for 2026?
Closing Jan 01, 2027 08:01AM UTC
Canada lost its "measles elimination status" in November 2025 amid a series of outbreaks of the highly contagious disease last year (Center for Infectious Disease Research & Policy, CBC). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2026 if still open and the outcome determined using data as provided by the Government of Canada's Health Infobase for 2026 as of approximately 5:00 PM ET on 18 January 2026 (Health Infobase - Measles Rubella, under Figure 3, click on "Figure 3: Text description" and see the "Number of confirmed cases" column). As of the launch of this question, the Government of Canada reported a total of 5,056 confirmed cases of measles in 2025. In the event of a discrepancy in the number of confirmed cases of measles reported on different parts of the webpage, the data under "Figure 3: Text description" will be used for resolution.
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| Possible Answer | Crowd Forecast | Change in last 24 hours |
|---|---|---|
| Fewer than 1,000 | 18.00% | -0.29% |
| At least 1,000, but fewer than 1,500 | 5.00% | -0.57% |
| At least 1,500, but fewer than 2,000 | 1.50% | -0.36% |
| At least 2,000, but fewer than 2,500 | 1.50% | -0.50% |
| At least 2,500, but fewer than 3,000 | 1.50% | -0.93% |
| At least 3,000, but fewer than 3,500 | 2.38% | -1.19% |
| At least 3,500, but fewer than 4,000 | 5.38% | +1.52% |
| At least 4,000, but fewer than 5,000 | 15.00% | +4.57% |
| At least 5,000, but fewer than 6,000 | 15.75% | +3.04% |
| At least 6,000, but fewer than 7,000 | 10.75% | -1.54% |
| 7,000 or more | 23.25% | -3.75% |