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Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Will Nicolas Maduro cease to be president of Venezuela before 1 April 2021?

8%

Chance
115 Forecasters • 150 Forecasts
Started Nov 13, 2020 10:30PM UTC
Closing Apr 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC

On 12 May 2021, will Ethiopia's Tigray region be under a federally-imposed state of emergency?

95%

Chance
48 Forecasters • 60 Forecasts
Started Nov 13, 2020 06:00PM UTC
Closing May 12, 2021 07:01AM UTC

Before 1 January 2021, will the Council of the European Union decide to impose an arms embargo against Turkey?

2%

Chance
77 Forecasters • 107 Forecasts
Started Nov 06, 2020 06:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2021 08:01AM UTC

Will Prayut Chan-o-cha cease to be the prime minister of Thailand before 23 April 2021?

10%

Chance
52 Forecasters • 123 Forecasts
Started Oct 23, 2020 05:00PM UTC
Closing Apr 23, 2021 07:01AM UTC

When will Lebanon's parliament give a vote of confidence to a new government?

50 Forecasters • 177 Forecasts
Started Oct 02, 2020 05:00PM UTC
Closing Apr 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Before 1 December 2020
17%
Between 1 December 2020 and 31 January 2021
52%
Between 1 February 2021 and 31 March 2021
25%
Not before 1 April 2021
6%
SE_Meyer asks:

Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan cease to be president of Turkey before 15 July 2021?

2%

Chance
128 Forecasters • 234 Forecasts
Started Sep 25, 2020 05:00PM UTC
Closing Jul 15, 2021 07:01AM UTC

Before 1 January 2021, will Alassane Ouattara cease to be the president of Ivory Coast?

0%

Chance
37 Forecasters • 89 Forecasts
Started Sep 18, 2020 05:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2021 08:01AM UTC
024_andrew asks:

Before 18 September 2021, will Boris Johnson cease to be prime minister of the United Kingdom?

15%

Chance
187 Forecasters • 337 Forecasts
Started Sep 18, 2020 05:00PM UTC
Closing Sep 18, 2021 07:01AM UTC
Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Before 1 December 2020, will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia?

229 Forecasters • 562 Forecasts
Started Sep 15, 2020 05:00PM UTC
Closing Dec 01, 2020 08:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Yes, by becoming the King of Saudi Arabia
0%
Yes, without becoming the King of Saudi Arabia
0%
No
100%

How many Arab League member states other than Palestine will diplomatically recognize the State of Israel as of 28 August 2021?

81 Forecasters • 364 Forecasts
Started Aug 28, 2020 05:00PM UTC
Closing Aug 28, 2021 07:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
2 or fewer
0%
3
0%
4
0%
5
8%
6 or more
92%