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Before 1 January 2021, will Ali Khamenei cease to be the supreme leader of Iran and/or Hassan Rouhani cease to be the president of Iran?

175 Forecasters • 251 Forecasts
Started Mar 13, 2020 05:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2021 07:59AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Yes, only Ali Khamenei will cease to be supreme leader
9%
Yes, only Hassan Rouhani will cease to be president
14%
Yes, both Ali Khamenei and Hassan Rouhani will cease to hold their respective positions, with neither replacing the other
6%
Yes, both Ali Khamenei and Hassan Rouhani will cease to hold their respective positions, with at least one replacing the other
5%
No
66%
Foxes Ask:

Who will be selected as the next leader of Germany's Christian Democratic Union (CDU) party at its special party congress?

47 Forecasters • 103 Forecasts
Started Mar 13, 2020 05:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2021 07:59AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Armin Laschet
30%
Friedrich Merz
41%
Norbert Röttgen
6%
Someone else
9%
No successor will be selected at the special party congress or the special party congress will be canceled
14%

Who will win the 2020 Bolivian presidential election?

52 Forecasters • 109 Forecasts
Started Feb 21, 2020 06:00PM UTC
Closing Jun 14, 2020 06:59AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Jeanine Áñez
23%
Luis Arce
56%
Luis Camacho
6%
Carlos Mesa
12%
Someone else or another outcome
3%
The Economist asks:

Before 1 October 2020, will the European Council decide to open accession negotiations with Albania and/or North Macedonia?

213 Forecasters • 378 Forecasts
Started Feb 14, 2020 06:00PM UTC
Closing Oct 01, 2020 06:59AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Yes, only Albania
4%
Yes, only North Macedonia
4%
Yes, both Albania and North Macedonia
36%
No
56%
Foxes Ask:

Will Scott Morrison cease to be prime minister of Australia before 1 January 2021?

5%

Chance
156 Forecasters • 253 Forecasts
Started Feb 14, 2020 06:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2021 07:59AM UTC

Before 1 January 2021, will the People's Liberation Army (PLA) and/or People’s Armed Police (PAP) be mobilized in Hong Kong?

5%

Chance
96 Forecasters • 160 Forecasts
Started Jan 24, 2020 06:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2021 07:59AM UTC
Foxes Ask:

Will there be a new prime minister of Italy before 24 January 2021?

27%

Chance
112 Forecasters • 231 Forecasts
Started Jan 24, 2020 06:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 24, 2021 07:59AM UTC
  Fareed Zakaria GPS asks:

Will Benjamin Netanyahu cease to be the prime minister of Israel before 1 January 2021?

55%

Chance
1203 Forecasters • 1564 Forecasts
Started Jan 17, 2020 09:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2021 07:59AM UTC
  Fareed Zakaria GPS asks:

Before 1 January 2021, will a date be set for a referendum on Scotland's status within the United Kingdom?

10%

Chance
1235 Forecasters • 1493 Forecasts
Started Jan 17, 2020 09:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2021 07:59AM UTC