Good Judgment® Open

The Mercator Institute for China Studies (MERICS) asks:

Between 16 April 2021 and 31 December 2021, will ASML obtain an export license from the Netherlands to export an Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) lithography system to the People's Republic of China?

5%

Chance

30 Forecasters • 35 Forecasts

Started Apr 16, 2021 05:00PM UTC

Closing Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC

CJH asks:

Following the 2021 German Bundestag elections, which parties will be part of the new government?

50 Forecasters • 90 Forecasts

Started Apr 16, 2021 05:00PM UTC

Closing Sep 26, 2021 07:01AM UTC

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The CDU but not the Green Party

11%

The Green Party but not the CDU

13%

Both the CDU and the Green Party

67%

Neither the CDU nor the Green Party

No government will be formed before 31 December 2021

Adam Grant asks:

What will be Saudi Arabia's crude oil production for July 2021, according to OPEC?

63 Forecasters • 82 Forecasts

Started Apr 09, 2021 06:00PM UTC

Closing Aug 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC

Show All Possible Answers

Less than 8,000 tb/d

Between 8,000 tb/d and 8,500 tb/d, inclusive

More than 8,500 tb/d but less than 9,000 tb/d

12%

Between 9,000 tb/d and 9,500 tb/d, inclusive

38%

More than 9,500 tb/d

48%

Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Will the EU establish a moratorium or ban on the use of facial recognition systems (FRS) in public spaces by public authorities, in premises meant for education and healthcare, and/or by law enforcement in semi-public spaces before 1 January 2022?

60%

Chance

41 Forecasters • 57 Forecasts

Started Apr 09, 2021 06:00PM UTC

Closing Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC

Adam Grant and 024_andrew and ask:

Will Scott Morrison cease to be prime minister of Australia before 1 September 2021?

4%

Chance

110 Forecasters • 145 Forecasts

Started Apr 02, 2021 05:00PM UTC

Closing Sep 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC

The Economist asks:

Will Berlin's Humboldt Forum open to the general public before 1 August 2021?

50%

Chance

53 Forecasters • 100 Forecasts

Started Apr 02, 2021 05:00PM UTC

Closing Aug 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC

Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Will the UN, a UN agency, and/or OECD member country publicly accuse Myanmar defense forces and/or law enforcement of using a toxic chemical against protesters to cause intentional death or physical harm through its toxic properties before 15 September 2021?

29%

Chance

88 Forecasters • 137 Forecasts

Started Mar 26, 2021 05:00PM UTC

Closing Sep 15, 2021 07:01AM UTC

The Mercator Institute for China Studies (MERICS) asks:

Between 26 January 2021 and 31 December 2021, how many members of the Politburo will Chinese state media announce have been arrested and/or expelled from their posts?

54 Forecasters • 116 Forecasts

Started Feb 26, 2021 06:00PM UTC

Closing Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC

Show All Possible Answers

78%

17%

2 or more

Adam Grant asks:

Before 15 August 2021, will Alexei Navalny be convicted on any fraud charges related to his activities with his non-profit organizations?

25%

Chance

431 Forecasters • 739 Forecasts

Started Feb 24, 2021 09:30PM UTC

Closing Aug 15, 2021 07:01AM UTC

Private Superforecasting Workshop and erikbays ask:

Before 1 January 2022, will the U.S. officially rejoin the JCPOA?

60%

Chance

93 Forecasters • 316 Forecasts

Started Feb 12, 2021 06:00PM UTC

Closing Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC

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Between 16 April 2021 and 31 December 2021, will ASML obtain an export license from the Netherlands to export an Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) lithography system to the People's Republic of China?

5%

Following the 2021 German Bundestag elections, which parties will be part of the new government?

What will be Saudi Arabia's crude oil production for July 2021, according to OPEC?

Will the EU establish a moratorium or ban on the use of facial recognition systems (FRS) in public spaces by public authorities, in premises meant for education and healthcare, and/or by law enforcement in semi-public spaces before 1 January 2022?

60%

Will Scott Morrison cease to be prime minister of Australia before 1 September 2021?

4%

Will Berlin's Humboldt Forum open to the general public before 1 August 2021?

50%

Will the UN, a UN agency, and/or OECD member country publicly accuse Myanmar defense forces and/or law enforcement of using a toxic chemical against protesters to cause intentional death or physical harm through its toxic properties before 15 September 2021?

29%

Between 26 January 2021 and 31 December 2021, how many members of the Politburo will Chinese state media announce have been arrested and/or expelled from their posts?

Before 15 August 2021, will Alexei Navalny be convicted on any fraud charges related to his activities with his non-profit organizations?

25%

Before 1 January 2022, will the U.S. officially rejoin the JCPOA?

60%

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4%

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29%

25%

60%