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The
Mercator Institute for China Studies (MERICS)
asks:
Between 16 April 2021 and 31 December 2021, will ASML obtain an export license from the Netherlands to export an Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) lithography system to the People's Republic of China?
5%
Chance
30 Forecasters • 35 Forecasts
Started
Apr 16, 2021 05:00PM UTC
Closing
Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC
CJH
asks:
Following the 2021 German Bundestag elections, which parties will be part of the new government?
50 Forecasters • 90 Forecasts
Started
Apr 16, 2021 05:00PM UTC
Closing
Sep 26, 2021 07:01AM UTC
Show All Possible Answers
The CDU but not the Green Party
11%
The Green Party but not the CDU
13%
Both the CDU and the Green Party
67%
Neither the CDU nor the Green Party
0%
No government will be formed before 31 December 2021
9%
Adam Grant
asks:
What will be Saudi Arabia's crude oil production for July 2021, according to OPEC?
63 Forecasters • 82 Forecasts
Started
Apr 09, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closing
Aug 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC
Show All Possible Answers
Less than 8,000 tb/d
0%
Between 8,000 tb/d and 8,500 tb/d, inclusive
2%
More than 8,500 tb/d but less than 9,000 tb/d
12%
Between 9,000 tb/d and 9,500 tb/d, inclusive
38%
More than 9,500 tb/d
48%
Private
Superforecasting Workshop
asks:
Will the EU establish a moratorium or ban on the use of facial recognition systems (FRS) in public spaces by public authorities, in premises meant for education and healthcare, and/or by law enforcement in semi-public spaces before 1 January 2022?
60%
Chance
41 Forecasters • 57 Forecasts
Started
Apr 09, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closing
Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC
Adam Grant
and
024_andrew
and ask:
Will Scott Morrison cease to be prime minister of Australia before 1 September 2021?
4%
Chance
110 Forecasters • 145 Forecasts
Started
Apr 02, 2021 05:00PM UTC
Closing
Sep 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC
The Economist
asks:
Will Berlin's Humboldt Forum open to the general public before 1 August 2021?
50%
Chance
53 Forecasters • 100 Forecasts
Started
Apr 02, 2021 05:00PM UTC
Closing
Aug 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC
Private
Superforecasting Workshop
asks:
Will the UN, a UN agency, and/or OECD member country publicly accuse Myanmar defense forces and/or law enforcement of using a toxic chemical against protesters to cause intentional death or physical harm through its toxic properties before 15 September 2021?
29%
Chance
88 Forecasters • 137 Forecasts
Started
Mar 26, 2021 05:00PM UTC
Closing
Sep 15, 2021 07:01AM UTC
The
Mercator Institute for China Studies (MERICS)
asks:
Between 26 January 2021 and 31 December 2021, how many members of the Politburo will Chinese state media announce have been arrested and/or expelled from their posts?
54 Forecasters • 116 Forecasts
Started
Feb 26, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closing
Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC
Show All Possible Answers
0
78%
1
17%
2 or more
5%
Adam Grant
asks:
Before 15 August 2021, will Alexei Navalny be convicted on any fraud charges related to his activities with his non-profit organizations?
25%
Chance
431 Forecasters • 739 Forecasts
Started
Feb 24, 2021 09:30PM UTC
Closing
Aug 15, 2021 07:01AM UTC
Private
Superforecasting Workshop
and
erikbays
ask:
Before 1 January 2022, will the U.S. officially rejoin the JCPOA?
60%
Chance
93 Forecasters • 316 Forecasts
Started
Feb 12, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closing
Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC
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