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Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Will Abiy Ahmed cease to be the prime minister of Ethiopia by way of extraconstitutional events before 1 January 2022?

6%

Chance
13 Forecasters • 14 Forecasts
Started Jul 30, 2021 05:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC

What will Chinese ride-hailing company DiDi's end-of-day market capitalization be on 31 December 2021?

31 Forecasters • 58 Forecasts
Started Jul 23, 2021 05:00PM UTC
Closing Dec 31, 2021 08:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Less than $25 billion
6%
Between $25 billion and $40 billion, inclusive
26%
More than $40 billion but less than $55 billion
48%
Between $55 billion and $70 billion, inclusive
10%
More than $70 billion
0%
DiDi will cease to be listed on a US stock exchange before 1 January 2022
10%
Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces of Egypt and Ethiopia before 1 January 2022?

3%

Chance
72 Forecasters • 78 Forecasts
Started Jul 23, 2021 05:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC

Who will win the 2021 presidential election in Chile?

36 Forecasters • 65 Forecasts
Started Jul 21, 2021 02:28PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Gabriel Boric
51%
Sebastián Sichel
39%
Another candidate
9%
There will not be a presidential election in Chile before 1 January 2022
1%
Tim Harford asks:

When will the 7-day average of new COVID-19 cases in the UK next fall below 15,000?

77 Forecasters • 160 Forecasts
Started Jul 21, 2021 02:27PM UTC
Closing Dec 18, 2021 08:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Before 11 September 2021
63%
Between 11 September 2021 and 29 October 2021
27%
Between 30 October 2021 and 17 December 2021
9%
Not before 18 December 2021
1%

Will Haiti hold a presidential election before 1 January 2022?

32%

Chance
48 Forecasters • 87 Forecasts
Started Jul 16, 2021 05:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC

What will be total OPEC crude oil production for October 2021?

25 Forecasters • 48 Forecasts
Started Jul 16, 2021 05:00PM UTC
Closing Nov 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Fewer than 25,500 tb/d
0%
Between 25,500 tb/d and 27,000 tb/d, inclusive
10%
More than 27,000 tb/d but fewer than 28,500 tb/d
73%
28,500 tb/d or more
17%
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