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Hanyfawwaz
and
David Epstein
ask:
Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 January 2023?
8%
Chance
494 Forecasters • 1333 Forecasts
Started
Feb 26, 2022 05:30PM UTC
Closing
Jan 01, 2023 08:01AM UTC
Private
Superforecasting Workshop
and
David Epstein
ask:
Will US real GDP contract in both the third quarter (Q3) and fourth quarter (Q4) of 2022?
20%
Chance
77 Forecasters • 221 Forecasts
Started
Apr 08, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closing
Jan 01, 2023 08:01AM UTC
Private
Superforecasting Workshop
asks:
Will US federal legislation providing for new tax credits for the purchase of electric vehicles (EVs) become law before 19 August 2022?
5%
Chance
46 Forecasters • 140 Forecasts
Started
Feb 18, 2022 06:00PM UTC
Closing
Aug 19, 2022 07:01AM UTC
The Economist
asks:
Will Tunisia hold a constitutional referendum before 1 August 2022?
65%
Chance
151 Forecasters • 323 Forecasts
Started
Dec 17, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closing
Aug 01, 2022 07:01AM UTC
The Economist
asks:
Will total fire activity in the Amazon for January through September 2022 exceed the total for January through September 2021?
78%
Chance
160 Forecasters • 320 Forecasts
Started
Jan 07, 2022 06:00PM UTC
Closing
Oct 01, 2022 07:01AM UTC
Private
Superforecasting Workshop
asks:
Will the US domestic box office gross in the opening weekend for Top Gun: Maverick reach or exceed $45 million, according to Box Office Mojo?
85%
Chance
59 Forecasters • 95 Forecasts
Started
Apr 29, 2022 08:15PM UTC
Closing
May 28, 2022 07:01AM UTC
Will the UN declare that a famine exists in any part of Afghanistan in 2022?
46%
Chance
119 Forecasters • 313 Forecasts
Started
Jan 28, 2022 06:00PM UTC
Closing
Jan 01, 2023 08:01AM UTC
David Epstein
asks:
Will the UK or EU trigger Article 16 of the Northern Ireland Protocol before 20 August 2022?
9%
Chance
28 Forecasters • 42 Forecasts
Started
May 20, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closing
Aug 20, 2022 07:01AM UTC
Private
Superforecasting Workshop
asks:
Will the total monetary value of victim losses reported by the FBI's Internet Crime Complaint Center (IC3) for 2022 reach or exceed $9.0 billion?
80%
Chance
19 Forecasters • 24 Forecasts
Started
May 20, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closing
Jan 01, 2023 08:01AM UTC
The Economist
asks:
Will the spread between US high-yield corporate bonds and US Treasuries reach or exceed 5.00% before 1 October 2022?
72%
Chance
174 Forecasters • 588 Forecasts
Started
Dec 17, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closing
Oct 01, 2022 07:01AM UTC
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