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Hanyfawwaz and David Epstein ask:

Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 January 2023?

8%

Chance
494 Forecasters • 1333 Forecasts
Started Feb 26, 2022 05:30PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2023 08:01AM UTC
Private Superforecasting Workshop and David Epstein ask:

Will US real GDP contract in both the third quarter (Q3) and fourth quarter (Q4) of 2022?

20%

Chance
77 Forecasters • 221 Forecasts
Started Apr 08, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2023 08:01AM UTC
Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Will US federal legislation providing for new tax credits for the purchase of electric vehicles (EVs) become law before 19 August 2022?

5%

Chance
46 Forecasters • 140 Forecasts
Started Feb 18, 2022 06:00PM UTC
Closing Aug 19, 2022 07:01AM UTC
The Economist asks:

Will Tunisia hold a constitutional referendum before 1 August 2022?

65%

Chance
151 Forecasters • 323 Forecasts
Started Dec 17, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closing Aug 01, 2022 07:01AM UTC
The Economist asks:

Will total fire activity in the Amazon for January through September 2022 exceed the total for January through September 2021?

78%

Chance
160 Forecasters • 320 Forecasts
Started Jan 07, 2022 06:00PM UTC
Closing Oct 01, 2022 07:01AM UTC
Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Will the US domestic box office gross in the opening weekend for Top Gun: Maverick reach or exceed $45 million, according to Box Office Mojo?

85%

Chance
59 Forecasters • 95 Forecasts
Started Apr 29, 2022 08:15PM UTC
Closing May 28, 2022 07:01AM UTC

Will the UN declare that a famine exists in any part of Afghanistan in 2022?

46%

Chance
119 Forecasters • 313 Forecasts
Started Jan 28, 2022 06:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2023 08:01AM UTC
David Epstein asks:

Will the UK or EU trigger Article 16 of the Northern Ireland Protocol before 20 August 2022?

9%

Chance
28 Forecasters • 42 Forecasts
Started May 20, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closing Aug 20, 2022 07:01AM UTC
Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Will the total monetary value of victim losses reported by the FBI's Internet Crime Complaint Center (IC3) for 2022 reach or exceed $9.0 billion?

80%

Chance
19 Forecasters • 24 Forecasts
Started May 20, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2023 08:01AM UTC
The Economist asks:

Will the spread between US high-yield corporate bonds and US Treasuries reach or exceed 5.00% before 1 October 2022?

72%

Chance
174 Forecasters • 588 Forecasts
Started Dec 17, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closing Oct 01, 2022 07:01AM UTC
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