Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Will the value of the "misery index" for the eurozone reach or exceed 17.5% for any month in 2023 or 2024?

Started Apr 13, 2023 05:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2025 08:01AM UTC

The "misery index," or the unemployment rate plus the rate of inflation, is a measure of economic hardship first used in the US in the 1970s (Investopedia - Misery Index). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2024 if still open and the outcome determined using unemployment rate and inflation rate data for "Euro area – 20 countries (from 2023)" as reported by Eurostat (Eurostat - Unemployment, Eurostat - Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP)). The highest level reached since 2018 was 17.3% in October 2022 (unemployment rate at 6.7% + inflation at 10.6%). Revisions to data after they are published would be immaterial.

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Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours Change in last week Change in last month
Yes 9.45% -0.36% -0.36% -0.74%
No 90.55% +0.36% +0.36% +0.74%

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