Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:
Will the value of the "misery index" for the eurozone reach or exceed 17.5% for any month in 2023 or 2024?
Closing Jan 01, 2025 08:01AM UTC
The "misery index," or the unemployment rate plus the rate of inflation, is a measure of economic hardship first used in the US in the 1970s (Investopedia - Misery Index). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2024 if still open and the outcome determined using unemployment rate and inflation rate data for "Euro area – 20 countries (from 2023)" as reported by Eurostat (Eurostat - Unemployment, Eurostat - Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP)). The highest level reached since 2018 was 17.3% in October 2022 (unemployment rate at 6.7% + inflation at 10.6%). Revisions to data after they are published would be immaterial.