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Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Will the annual percent change in the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index be at or below 3.0% by December 2022?

8%

Chance
30 Forecasters • 45 Forecasts
Started Aug 05, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2023 08:01AM UTC
Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Before 31 March 2023, will the weekly average interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages in the US fall below 4.55%?

37%

Chance
38 Forecasters • 65 Forecasts
Started Jul 22, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closing Mar 30, 2023 07:01AM UTC
Sturgii asks:

What will be the percentage change in real German GDP in the fourth quarter of 2022 as compared to the fourth quarter of 2021?

32 Forecasters • 70 Forecasts
Started Jul 22, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2023 08:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Lower by 4.0% or more
7%
Lower by between 2.0% and 4.0%, inclusive
33%
Lower by more than 0.0% but less than 2.0%
57%
Higher by between 0.0% and 2.0%, inclusive
3%
Higher by more than 2.0%
0%

What will be the closing value of the euro to US dollar exchange rate on 14 October 2022?

61 Forecasters • 247 Forecasts
Started Jul 15, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closing Oct 14, 2022 07:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Lower than 0.85
0%
Between 0.85 and 0.90, inclusive
0%
Higher than 0.90 but lower than 0.95
0%
Between 0.95 and 1.00, inclusive
28%
Higher than 1.00 but lower than 1.05
61%
Between 1.05 and 1.10, inclusive
11%
Higher than 1.10 but lower than 1.15
0%
1.15 or higher
0%

Will the spread between US high-yield corporate bonds and US Treasuries reach or exceed 8.50% before 1 December 2022?

16%

Chance
45 Forecasters • 135 Forecasts
Started Jul 01, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closing Dec 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC

What will US holiday season retail sales be for 2022 relative to the 2021 holiday season?

30 Forecasters • 86 Forecasts
Started Jul 01, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2023 08:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Lower by 5.0% or more
0%
Lower by more than 2.5% but less than 5.0%
0%
Lower by between 0.0% and 2.5%, inclusive
9%
Higher by more than 0.0% but less than 2.5%
20%
Higher by between 2.5% and 5.0%, inclusive
28%
Higher by more than 5.0% but less than 7.5%
30%
Higher by 7.5% or more
13%
Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

How many travelers will the US Transportation Security Agency (TSA) screen in December 2022?

25 Forecasters • 84 Forecasts
Started Jun 24, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2023 08:01AM UTC
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Fewer than 50 million
0%
Between 50 million and 55 million, inclusive
0%
More than 55 million but fewer than 60 million
8%
Between 60 million and 65 million, inclusive
38%
More than 65 million but fewer than 70 million
48%
Between 70 million and 75 million, inclusive
6%
More than 75 million
0%
Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

What will be the national average price of a gallon of gasoline on 8 November 2022, according to the American Automobile Association (AAA)?

58 Forecasters • 167 Forecasts
Started Jun 24, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closing Nov 08, 2022 08:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Less than $3.00
0%
Between $3.00 and $3.50, inclusive
6%
More than $3.50 but less than $4.00
45%
Between $4.00 and $4.50, inclusive
40%
More than $4.50 but less than $5.00
9%
Between $5.00 and $5.50, inclusive
0%
More than $5.50 but less than $6.00
0%
Between $6.00 and $6.50, inclusive
0%
More than $6.50
0%

What will be the unadjusted percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for coffee in May 2023 as compared to May 2022?

21 Forecasters • 82 Forecasts
Started Jun 17, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closing Jun 01, 2023 07:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Down by more than 3.0%
0%
Down by between 0.0% and 3.0%, inclusive
0%
Up by more than 0.0% but less than 3.0%
9%
Up by between 3.0% and 6.0%, inclusive
60%
Up by more than 6.0% but less than 9.0%
24%
Up by between 9.0% and 12.0%, inclusive
5%
Up by more than 12.0%
2%

What will be the 12-month moving average of median wage growth for "Paid hourly" workers in April 2023?

25 Forecasters • 71 Forecasts
Started Jun 10, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closing May 01, 2023 07:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Less than 2.0%
0%
Between 2.0% and 4.0%, inclusive
8%
More than 4.0% but less than 6.0%
55%
Between 6.0% and 8.0%, inclusive
33%
More than 8.0%
4%
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