Will the spread between US high-yield corporate bonds and US Treasuries reach or exceed 4.0% before 2 November 2024?

Started Apr 26, 2024 05:00PM UTC
Closing Nov 02, 2024 07:01AM UTC

Despite stresses in the US banking system, borrowing costs for "high-yield" bonds (aka junk bonds) have trended down in the past 12 months (Yahoo [Reuters], Business Times, Yahoo [PitchBook], Investopedia - High-Yield Bond). The outcome will be determined using Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) data as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database for "ICE BofA US High Yield Index Option-Adjusted Spread" (FRED). For 22 April 2024, the spread was 3.29%.

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Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours Change in last week Change in last month
Yes 35.50% -0.10% -0.10% -0.60%
No 64.50% +0.10% +0.10% +0.60%

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