cosaib asks:

Will the UN declare that a famine exists in any part of the Gaza Strip before 1 September 2024?

Started Jan 19, 2024 06:00PM UTC
Closed Sep 01, 2024 07:01AM UTC

Fighting in Gaza since Hamas' 7 October 2023 attack and Israel's subsequent response have left the area at risk for famine (US News & World Report, World Health Organization, Famine Early Warning Systems Network, Integrated Food Security Phase Classification, ReliefWeb). For general information on how famines are declared, see: NPR. The reporting of famine conditions without a UN famine declaration would not count.

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 September 2024.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 17%
No 83%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 106
Average for questions older than 6 months: 188
Number of Forecasts 542
Average for questions older than 6 months: 545
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.930932
3.
-0.913857
4.
-0.89415
5.
-0.832738

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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