Will the World Health Organization (WHO) declare a new Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) before 1 July 2025?

Started Jul 05, 2024 05:00PM UTC
Closed Aug 14, 2024 05:30PM UTC
Challenges
Tags
Society   Health  

A PHEIC is defined by WHO as "an extraordinary event which is determined to constitute a public health risk to other States through the international spread of disease and to potentially require a coordinated international response" under International Health Regulations, with recent examples including COVID-19, Monkeypox, and wild polio (International Health Regulations 2005, linked here under publications - WHO - International Health Regulations, International Health Regulations - Annex II, Pan American Health Organization, NPR).

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The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 14 August 2024.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 41%
No 59%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 46
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 163
Number of Forecasts 73
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 429
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.946938
3.
-0.941938
4.
-0.908938
5.
-0.86548

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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