Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Will the US publicly accuse a state actor of committing an act of cyberwar against critical infrastructure of the US before 1 January 2025?

Started Jul 28, 2023 05:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2025 08:01AM UTC

For the purposes of this question, "an act of cyberwar" is a cyber act (i.e., an unauthorized, malicious, and destructive act completed against a computer system through the use of a computer system) that compromises and disrupts a critical infrastructure system with destructive effects, and "state actor" means an organ of a nation state or a state-directed or state-sponsored individual or group (United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime). "US" means the executive branch of the federal government. "Critical infrastructure" is as defined in the United States Code at 18 USC 2339D(c)(3) (Cornell). Critical infrastructure does not necessarily have to be within the territory of the US to count, and both the act and accusation must occur during the question's open period to count. That an accused actor is a state actor must be stated in the accusation to count. Accusations of superficially disruptive attacks (e.g., DDoS attacks on public websites) would not count (e.g., CNN).

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NOTE 22 May 2024: While there have been reports of cyber acts recently executed by state actors against water infrastructure systems in the US, these attacks have not had "destructive effects" and/or have not risen above the threshold of "superficially disruptive attacks."

Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours Change in last week Change in last month
Yes 22.73% -0.08% -1.73% -11.08%
No 77.27% +0.08% +1.73% +11.08%

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