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Adam Grant asks:

What will be Saudi Arabia's crude oil production for July 2021, according to OPEC?

57 Forecasters • 68 Forecasts
Started Apr 09, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closing Aug 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC
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Less than 8,000 tb/d
0%
Between 8,000 tb/d and 8,500 tb/d, inclusive
2%
More than 8,500 tb/d but less than 9,000 tb/d
17%
Between 9,000 tb/d and 9,500 tb/d, inclusive
36%
More than 9,500 tb/d
45%
The Mercator Institute for China Studies (MERICS) asks:

What will be the Chinese renminbi's share as a global payments currency in December 2021, according to SWIFT?

45 Forecasters • 73 Forecasts
Started Apr 09, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC
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Less than 2.00%
8%
Between 2.00% and 2.50%, inclusive
69%
More than 2.50% but less than 3.00%
22%
3.00% or more
1%

Before 1 January 2022, will North Korea detonate a nuclear device and/or launch an ICBM with an estimated range of at least 10,000km?

124 Forecasters • 232 Forecasts
Started Mar 05, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC
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Yes, only detonate a nuclear device
6%
Yes, only launch an ICBM
35%
Yes, both
2%
No
57%
Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Will the People's Republic of China's (PRC's) military expenditure as a percentage of GDP be greater in 2021 than it was in 2019?

95%

Chance
98 Forecasters • 183 Forecasts
Started Feb 26, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC
Private Superforecasting Workshop and erikbays ask:

Before 1 January 2022, will the U.S. officially rejoin the JCPOA?

60%

Chance
87 Forecasters • 303 Forecasts
Started Feb 12, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC

Will Saudi Arabia diplomatically recognize the State of Israel in 2021?

3%

Chance
96 Forecasters • 201 Forecasts
Started Feb 05, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC
Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Will U.S. President Joe Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin hold a bilateral meeting in 2021?

20%

Chance
208 Forecasters • 491 Forecasts
Started Jan 22, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC
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