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HFC asks

Before 29 December 2017, will it be announced that Chinese troops are deploying to the disputed border region between Eritrea and Djibouti?

5%

Chance
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44 Forecasters • 64 Forecasts
Started Sep 13, 2017 04:00PM UTC Closing Dec 29, 2017 07:59AM UTC

Will any disputes over IAEA access to Iranian sites be referred to the Joint Commission before 1 July 2018?

2%

Chance
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27 Forecasters • 43 Forecasts
Started Sep 12, 2017 05:00PM UTC Closing Jun 30, 2018 06:59AM UTC

Between 15 August 2017 and 1 June 2018, how many European Union countries will announce the opening of an embassy in Libya?

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45 Forecasters • 123 Forecasts
Started Aug 15, 2017 05:00PM UTC Closing Jun 01, 2018 06:59AM UTC
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0
60%
1-2
32%
3-4
7%
more than 4
0%

Before 1 July 2018, will Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte proclaim martial law nationwide?

29%

Chance
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68 Forecasters • 157 Forecasts
Started Aug 15, 2017 05:00PM UTC Closing Jul 01, 2018 06:59AM UTC

Before 1 January 2018, how many countries, from among Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain, and Egypt, will return their ambassador to Qatar?

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113 Forecasters • 243 Forecasts
Started Jul 18, 2017 05:00PM UTC Closing Jan 01, 2018 07:59AM UTC
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0
98%
1
1%
2
0%
3
0%
4
1%

When will it be announced that Qatar is withdrawing from the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC)?

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98 Forecasters • 263 Forecasts
Started Jul 18, 2017 05:00PM UTC Closing Jan 01, 2018 07:59AM UTC
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Before 1 October 2017
0%
Between 1 October 2017 and 31 December 2017, inclusive
10%
Not before 1 January 2018
90%
The CFA Society Los Angeles asks

When will Fitch, Moody's, or S&P, next downgrade China's long term local or foreign currency issuer ratings?

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84 Forecasters • 196 Forecasts
Started Jul 14, 2017 05:00PM UTC Closing Jan 01, 2018 07:59AM UTC
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Before 1 January 2018
5%
Between 1 January 2018 and 30 June 2018, inclusive
16%
Between 1 July 2018 and 31 December 2018, inclusive
18%
Not before 1 January 2019
61%

How many NATO members will spend 2% or more of their GDP on defense in 2018?

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199 Forecasters • 555 Forecasts
Started Mar 21, 2017 05:00PM UTC Closing Jan 01, 2019 07:59AM UTC
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Less than 5
1%
5
21%
6 to 8, inclusive
73%
More than 8
5%