Status

Type

Sort By

Bernard Zimmermann asks:

Before 1 January 2023, will the US officially rejoin the JCPOA?

15%

Chance
51 Forecasters • 66 Forecasts
Started Jan 14, 2022 06:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2023 08:01AM UTC

Before 1 January 2023, will North Korea launch an ICBM with an estimated range of at least 10,000 km?

40%

Chance
54 Forecasters • 76 Forecasts
Started Jan 14, 2022 06:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2023 08:01AM UTC
Nick-Nolan asks:

Between 30 December 2021 and 31 May 2022, will NATO and/or a NATO member state accuse Russian national military forces of invading Ukraine?

183 Forecasters • 453 Forecasts
Started Dec 30, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closing Jun 01, 2022 07:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Yes, invading the Donetsk and/or Luhansk Oblasts only
16%
Yes, invading Ukrainian territory outside of Donetsk and/or Luhansk Oblasts only
6%
Yes, invading the Donetsk and/or Luhansk Oblasts as well as other Ukrainian territory
23%
No
55%

Before 1 December 2022, will the Women's Tennis Association (WTA) announce the lifting of its suspension of WTA tournaments in China and Hong Kong?

15%

Chance
64 Forecasters • 108 Forecasts
Started Dec 17, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closing Dec 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC
The Economist asks:

Which political party will win the most seats in the next Northern Ireland Assembly election?

114 Forecasters • 145 Forecasts
Started Dec 03, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closing May 05, 2022 07:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Democratic Unionist Party
30%
Sinn Féin
70%
Another party
0%
Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Before 1 January 2023, will Taiwan publicly accuse the People's Republic of China of landing military personnel on the Pratas Islands without authorization?

11%

Chance
79 Forecasters • 110 Forecasts
Started Nov 19, 2021 10:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2023 08:01AM UTC
Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Between 19 November 2021 and 31 December 2022, how many countries will sign their first Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) memorandum of understanding with the People's Republic of China (PRC)?

39 Forecasters • 106 Forecasts
Started Nov 19, 2021 10:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2023 08:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
0
0%
1 or 2
0%
3 or 4
0%
5 or 6
2%
7 or more
98%
Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Before 1 January 2023, will negotiations on a China-Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) free trade agreement be completed?

1%

Chance
32 Forecasters • 47 Forecasts
Started Oct 29, 2021 05:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2023 08:01AM UTC
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username
Cancel