The Economist asks:
In the 2024 US presidential election race, will the Democratic nominee be leading the Republican nominee in polling on 6 September 2024, according to RealClearPolitics?
Closing Sep 06, 2024 07:01AM UTC
The 2024 US presidential election is scheduled for 5 November 2024 (ABC News). The question will be suspended on 5 September 2024 and the outcome determined using RCP Average chart data as reported by RealClearPolitics in a two-way race between the Democratic and Republican nominees for the date of 6 September 2024 when first available (e.g., 2020 RealClearPolitics - 2020 Election Example, hover cursor over chart for date and data). If RealClearPolitics does not aggregate polls for a two-way race, the outcome will be determined using data as aggregated for the fewest number of candidates, and the polling for any other candidates will be immaterial.
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| Possible Answer | Crowd Forecast | Change in last 24 hours | Change in last week | Change in last month |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No, and will be behind the Republican candidate by more than 5.0% | 9.71% | -0.14% | -0.28% | -1.60% |
| No, and will be behind the Republican candidate by between 0.0% and 5.0%, inclusive | 36.88% | +0.25% | -0.24% | -0.44% |
| Yes, and will be ahead of the Republican candidate by more than 0.0% but less than 5.0% | 43.86% | +0.10% | -0.31% | +1.80% |
| Yes, and will be ahead of the Republican candidate by 5.0% or more | 9.55% | -0.21% | +0.83% | +0.24% |