The Economist asks:

In the 2024 US presidential election race, will the Democratic nominee be leading the Republican nominee in polling on 6 September 2024, according to RealClearPolitics?

Started Nov 13, 2023 04:00PM UTC
Closing Sep 06, 2024 07:01AM UTC

The 2024 US presidential election is scheduled for 5 November 2024 (ABC News). The question will be suspended on 5 September 2024 and the outcome determined using RCP Average chart data as reported by RealClearPolitics in a two-way race between the Democratic and Republican nominees for the date of 6 September 2024 when first available (e.g., 2020 RealClearPolitics - 2020 Election Example, hover cursor over chart for date and data). If RealClearPolitics does not aggregate polls for a two-way race, the outcome will be determined using data as aggregated for the fewest number of candidates, and the polling for any other candidates will be immaterial.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.

Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours Change in last week Change in last month
No, and will be behind the Republican candidate by more than 5.0% 11.00% -0.07% -0.07% -0.18%
No, and will be behind the Republican candidate by between 0.0% and 5.0%, inclusive 34.96% +0.22% -0.08% -1.05%
Yes, and will be ahead of the Republican candidate by more than 0.0% but less than 5.0% 43.50% -0.03% +1.30% +2.25%
Yes, and will be ahead of the Republican candidate by 5.0% or more 10.54% -0.11% -1.15% -1.02%

Sign up or sign in to forecast!

Sign Up Sign In
Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username