The Economist asks:

Will a Quad country or the People's Republic of China publicly accuse the other of using a weapon against its national military, militia, and/or law enforcement forces before 1 October 2024?

Started Nov 17, 2023 06:00PM UTC
Closed Oct 01, 2024 07:01AM UTC

The Quad countries are the US, India, Japan, and Australia (Council on Foreign Relations). Tensions continue in the South China Sea and elsewhere, with increasing fears of some form of military confrontation (Voice of America, GIS). For the purposes of this question, drones may be considered part of "forces" if so claimed by the accused. Accusations of "warning shots" being fired would count (e.g., guns or missiles). An accusation of a vessel or aircraft deliberately ramming another would count, but accidental collisions would not. Cyberattacks and the use of directed-energy weapons (e.g., microwaves, sonic weapons) would not count, and an accusation of the mere use of blunt instruments as weapons, such as clubs and fists, in hand-to-hand fighting would not count. An accusation by one Quad country against another Quad country would not count, and both the accused use and the accusation must occur during the question's open period to count.

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 October 2024.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 10%
No 90%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 347
Average for questions older than 6 months: 193
Number of Forecasts 876
Average for questions older than 6 months: 554
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.072684
3.
-0.072543
4.
-0.07248
5.
-0.072242

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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