The Economist asks:
What percentage of Ukrainian territory will be held by Russia as of July 2024, according to the Brookings Institution's Ukraine Index?
Closed Aug 01, 2024 07:01AM UTC
A Ukrainian counteroffensive began in 2023, though territorial gains by November 2023 were limited (Economist, BBC, Newsweek). The question will be suspended on 31 July 2024 and the outcome determined using data as reported in the Brookings Institution's "Ukraine Index" (Brookings Institution - Ukraine Index, see "Percentage of Ukraine held by Russia" chart). If there is a discrepancy between the chart data and the downloaded data (see "Get the data" within the "NET TERRITORIAL GAINS" chart border), the downloaded data will be used for resolution.
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The question closed "At least 15%, but less than 20%" with a closing date of 1 August 2024.
See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Less than 5% | 1% | |
| At least 5%, but less than 10% | 3% | |
| At least 10%, but less than 15% | 5% | |
| At least 15%, but less than 20% | 87% | |
| 20% or more | 4% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 451 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 192 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 1213 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 552 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
