Foxes ask:

Will Saudi Arabia publicly announce that it will normalize relations with the State of Israel before 1 September 2024?

Started Aug 11, 2023 05:00PM UTC
Closed Sep 01, 2024 07:01AM UTC

Reports indicate that the US is negotiating an agreement between Israel and Saudi Arabia that would include the latter normalizing relations with the former (AP, Yahoo, Al Jazeera). Various Arab states recognized or agreed to normalize relations with Israel in 2020 (e.g., NY Times, CNN, NPR, CNN).

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NOTE 2 May 2024: The question is concerned with the date of the announcement by Saudi Arabia, irrespective of when the normalization will occur. Conditional announcements (e.g., if Israel does X, if the US does Y) will not count. Please see the examples in the question description for further illustration of what will count.


The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 September 2024.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 3%
No 97%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 195
Average for questions older than 6 months: 178
Number of Forecasts 752
Average for questions older than 6 months: 521
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.074103
2.
-0.072811
3.
-0.069332
4.
-0.068121
5.
-0.06509

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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