cosaib and The Economist ask:

Will Min Aung Hlaing cease to be the head of government of Myanmar before 1 September 2024?

Started Dec 08, 2023 06:00PM UTC
Closing Sep 01, 2024 07:01AM UTC

The ruling military government of Myanmar, which came to power in a coup in February 2021 led by current Prime Minister Min Aung Hlaing, has faced increased fighting with armed opposition groups around the country (Economist, CNN, NBC News, Britannica - Head of Government). If Min Aung Hlaing flees Myanmar, he will be deemed to have ceased to be the head of government, and whether he has fled Myanmar will be determined using credible open source reporting.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.

Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours Change in last week Change in last month
Yes 17.47% +0.01% -1.36% -2.04%
No 82.53% -0.01% +1.36% +2.04%

Sign up or sign in to forecast!

Sign Up Sign In
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username