The Economist asks:

When will Russia and Ukraine sign or announce an agreement to end the current conflict in Ukraine?

Started Nov 14, 2023 03:00PM UTC
Closing Oct 01, 2024 07:01AM UTC

Russia's war in Ukraine continues, though Russia floated the idea of talks on the "post-conflict settlement" of the war in October 2023 (Economist, Newsweek, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty). A signed or announced agreement must be acknowledged by both Russia and Ukraine to count. The Ukrainian government as recognized by the European Union must be party to the agreement to count. An armistice or a ceasefire of indefinite duration would count and must include the whole of Ukraine. Time-limited agreements (e.g., 72-hour ceasefire) would not count. The date an agreement would take effect is immaterial.

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Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours Change in last week Change in last month
Before 1 March 2024 0% 0% 0% 0%
Between 1 March 2024 and 15 June 2024 1.00% 0% 0% 0%
Between 16 June 2024 and 30 September 2024 6.00% 0% -1.00% -1.00%
Not before 1 October 2024 93.00% 0% +1.00% +1.00%

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