L-Who asks:

When will the yield curve for 2-year and 10-year US Treasury bonds next cease to be inverted?

Started Aug 04, 2023 05:00PM UTC
Closing Aug 01, 2024 07:01AM UTC

When interest rates on longer-term debt drop below rates on shorter-term debt, the yield curve is said to invert, which has often historically been a signal of an approaching recession (Investopedia, CNBC). The curve for 2-year and 10-year Treasury bonds inverted in July 2022 (NBC News). The outcome will be determined using daily US Treasury Department data as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database for "10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 2-Year Treasury Constant Maturity" (FRED).

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Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours Change in last week Change in last month
Before 2 November 2023 0% 0% 0% 0%
Between 2 November 2023 and 31 January 2024 0% 0% 0% 0%
Between 1 February 2024 and 1 May 2024 0% 0% 0% 0%
Between 2 May 2024 and 31 July 2024 8.18% -1.11% -3.35% -16.82%
Not before 1 August 2024 91.82% +1.11% +3.35% +16.82%

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