When interest rates on longer-term debt drop below rates on shorter-term debt, the yield curve is said to invert, which has often historically been a signal of an approaching recession (Investopedia, CNBC). The curve for 2-year and 10-year Treasury bonds inverted in July 2022 (NBC News). The outcome will be determined using daily US Treasury Department data as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database for "10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 2-Year Treasury Constant Maturity" (FRED).

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The question closed "Not before 1 August 2024" with a closing date of 1 August 2024.

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