When will the "land bridge" between Crimea and Russia be severed, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW)?

Started Nov 03, 2023 05:00PM UTC
Closing Jul 30, 2024 07:01AM UTC

In its fight against Russian forces, Ukraine hopes to sever the "land bridge" of occupied territory linking Crimea with Russia (Christian Science Monitor, NPR, Wall Street Journal, see slide 2 for a map of the land bridge). The outcome will be determined using data as provided by the Institute for the Study of War's (ISW's) interactive map of Russia's invasion of Ukraine (ISW). For the purposes of this question, "Crimea" means the territory on the Crimean Peninsula marked as "Russian-controlled before February 24, 2022" on the ISW map, and "Russia" means the border of Ukraine and Russia generally recognized by the international community. The land bridge between Crimea and Russia will be considered severed once ISW reports that there is no longer a stretch of contiguous territory under Russian control between Crimea and Russia, be it "Assessed Russian Advances in Ukraine," "Claimed Russian Control over Ukrainian Territory," "Assess Russian-controlled Ukrainian Territory," or similar classification.

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Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours Change in last week Change in last month
Before 1 February 2024 0.00% +0.00% -3.00% -3.00%
Between 1 February 2024 and 30 April 2024 2.00% +0.00% +0.00% +0.00%
Between 1 May 2024 and 29 July 2024 6.00% +0.00% +0.00% -1.00%
Not before 30 July 2024 92.00% +0.00% +3.00% +4.00%

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