SharpEdge asks:

When will Mike Johnson cease to be the Speaker of the US House of Representatives?

Started Nov 03, 2023 05:00PM UTC
Closing Nov 05, 2024 08:01AM UTC

After three weeks without a Speaker since Kevin McCarthy was ousted in early October 2023, House Republicans elected Louisiana Representative Mike Johnson to the post (House.gov, NBC News).

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.

Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours Change in last week Change in last month
Before 4 March 2024 0% 0% 0% 0%
Between 4 March 2024 and 4 July 2024 6.00% 0% -1.00% -13.00%
Between 5 July 2024 and 4 November 2024 11.00% 0% 0% -1.00%
Not before 5 November 2024 83.00% 0% +1.00% +14.00%

Sign up or sign in to forecast!

Sign Up Sign In
Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username