Before 15 May 2026, will Jerome Powell either A) publicly announce that he has ceased or will cease to be a member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (Board Member of the Fed) before the end of 2026, or B) actually cease to be a Board member?

Started Jan 16, 2026 06:00PM UTC
Closing May 15, 2026 07:01AM UTC

While President Trump is widely expected to announce a replacement for Fed Chair Powell once his term as Chair ends, whether Powell will stay on to finish his term on the Board is an open question (CNBC, Investopedia). Powell's current term as Chair of the Fed ends on 15 May 2026, though his current term as a Board member is scheduled to conclude at the end of January 2028 (Federal Reserve). For the purposes of this question, Powell will not be deemed to have ceased to be a Board member based solely on the president of the US purporting to terminate Powell as a Board member. Powell announcing that he will cease to be a Board member once a replacement is selected, appointed, and/or confirmed will count.

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Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours
Yes 16.60% -33.40%
No 83.40% +33.40%

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