Will any of the 200 largest commercial banks in the US fail in 2026?

Started Jan 02, 2026 05:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2027 08:01AM UTC
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For the purposes of this question, the 200 largest commercial banks in the US are the top 200 as listed by the Federal Reserve as of 30 September 2025 (Federal Reserve - Large Commercial Banks, see "September 30, 2025"). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2026 if still open and the outcome determined using data available from the Federal Reserve and open-source reporting. A bank will be deemed to have failed if it files for bankruptcy, is taken over by the FDIC, or similar outcomes (e.g., FDIC). The acquisition of a distressed bank by other institutions alone would not count (e.g., Federal Reserve - Wachovia).

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Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours
Yes 27.50% -22.50%
No 72.50% +22.50%

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