Started Aug 09, 2016 05:00PM UTC   •   Closed Dec 04, 2016 06:00PM UTC

Who will win Austria's upcoming presidential election?

This question was closed on "Alexander Von der Bellen" with an end date of 4 December 2016. Alexander Van der Bellen won Austria's presidential election BBC, Reuters, NPR. See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated


The end date for this question has been extended because the election has been rescheduled for December (The Guardian). A rerun of Austria's presidential election has been set for 2 October (Politico, BBC). Austria's Constitutional Court annulled the results of the presidential election held in May 2016, a contest in which former Green Party leader Alexander Van der Bellen appeared to defeat Norbert Hofer of the Freedom Party by a slim margin (BBC). Recommended Questions Before 1 July 2017, will any other European Union (EU) member state set a date for a referendum on leaving the EU? Will Dilma Rousseff cease to be President of Brazil before 1 January 2017? Who will win the 2016 US presidential election?

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Norbert Hofer 57%
Alexander Van der Bellen 43%
None of the above 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 247
Average for questions older than 6 months: 250
Number of Forecasts 617
Average for questions older than 6 months: 678
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.605
2.
-0.598
3.
-0.555
4.
-0.537
5.
-0.503

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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