&nbsp The Monkey Cage asks

Who will win the 2016 US presidential election?

Started Jan 21, 2016 03:51PM UTC
Closed Nov 08, 2016 07:59AM UTC
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
A Democrat 76%
A Republican 24%
Other 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 4493
Average for questions older than 6 months: 205
Number of Forecasts 10433
Average for questions older than 6 months: 582
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.86556
2.
-0.86556
3.
-0.86536
4.
-0.862666
5.
-0.856879

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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