Started Jan 21, 2016 03:51PM UTC   •   Closed Nov 08, 2016 07:59AM UTC

&nbsp The Monkey Cage asks

Who will win the 2016 US presidential election?

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
A Democrat 76%
A Republican 24%
Other 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 4493
Average for questions older than 6 months: 254
Number of Forecasts 10433
Average for questions older than 6 months: 683
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

2.
-0.866
3.
-0.865
4.
-0.863
5.
-0.857

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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