Started Feb 24, 2016 10:25PM UTC   •   Closed Nov 08, 2016 06:00PM UTC

&nbsp The Monkey Cage asks

(Conditional) If Donald Trump wins the Republican nomination, which party will win the U.S. presidential election?

This question was closed with the correct answer 'Republican' with an end date of 8 November 2016. Donald Trump, the Republican candidate, won the 2016 presidential election on November 8. (NY Times) See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated


Sign up and enter your own forecast, if you're here for The Monkey Cage Challenge! For more information on the presidential election, see Washington Post. This is a conditional question: Assume that Trump is the Republican nominee and make your forecasts on the outcome of the overall election. If Trump ultimately fails to win the nomination, this question will be voided. Recommended Questions Who will win the Republican Party nomination for the US presidential election? Who will win the 2016 US presidential election? After the Super Tuesday primaries, which Republican candidate will have won the most pledged delegates?

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Republican 15%
Other 0%
Democrat 85%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 1864
Average for questions older than 6 months: 256
Number of Forecasts 5613
Average for questions older than 6 months: 686
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-1.17
2.
-1.17
3.
-1.17
4.
-1.168
5.
-1.166

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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