Started Feb 11, 2016 06:00PM UTC   •   Closed Mar 01, 2016 07:59AM UTC

After the Super Tuesday primaries, which Republican candidate will have won the most pledged delegates?

Note: this is a probability question, asking for the top finisher, not a delegate share question! Pledged delegates are those delegates whose votes are determined by the outcome of the primaries (Bustle). More than 10 states will hold Republican primaries or caucuses on Super Tuesday, 1 March 2016 (HowStuffWorks, NBC News). Recommended Questions Who will win the Republican Party nomination for the US presidential election? After the Super Tuesday primaries, which Democratic candidate will have won the most pledged delegates?

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Jeb Bush 0%
Ben Carson 0%
Ted Cruz 23%
Jim Gilmore 0%
John Kasich 0%
Marco Rubio 20%
Donald Trump 57%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 1827
Average for questions older than 6 months: 254
Number of Forecasts 2683
Average for questions older than 6 months: 683
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

2.
-0.291
3.
-0.291
4.
-0.288

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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